IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/122709.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Soutenabilité du compte courant de la R.D Congo: risques et perspectives
[Sustainability of D.R. Congo Current Account: Risks and Outlook]

Author

Listed:
  • Muya, Jonathan
  • Malata, Alain

Abstract

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has faced persistent current account deficits despite a period of economic growth fueled by Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This paper uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the Balance of Payments (BOP) framework to explore the dynamics of the current account. It identifies economic growth and FDI as key factors influencing the current account balance, both in the short and long term. A key finding is that FDI inflows often coincide with a worsening current account. This is attributed to the relationship between capital inflows, increased private income, and higher imports, driven by limited local competitiveness. This dependence on imports highlights the structural weaknesses in the DRC’s economy. The study’s contribution is in identifying the dual role of FDI: while it boosts economic growth, it also increases external vulnerabilities by promoting import reliance. This insight is crucial for understanding the DRC’s current account issues and shaping policy to address them. To ensure sustainable development, the DRC must address these structural challenges through comprehensive reforms in industry, infrastructure, and education. These efforts would enhance local productivity, reduce import reliance, and lessen economic vulnerabilities. Moreover, promoting value-added sectors and export diversification is essential for long-term sustainability. Improving the business environment and fostering innovation could further support economic resilience. By addressing these issues, the DRC can better harness FDI for growth while reducing the current account deficit. In conclusion, this paper highlights the complex relationship between FDI and the current account in the DRC. It calls for urgent structural reforms to improve economic resilience and move towards more sustainable growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Muya, Jonathan & Malata, Alain, 2024. "Soutenabilité du compte courant de la R.D Congo: risques et perspectives [Sustainability of D.R. Congo Current Account: Risks and Outlook]," MPRA Paper 122709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:122709
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/122709/3/MPRA_paper_122709.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira & Paulo Gala, 2008. "Foreign savings, insufficiency of demand, and low growth," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 315-334, April.
    2. Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    3. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Georgeta Ilie, 2014. "Positive Versus Negative Effects of Foreign Direct Investments on Host Countries," Knowledge Horizons - Economics, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 6(4), pages 162-166, December.
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1964 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ayla Ogus & Niloufer Sohrabji, 2008. "On the optimality and sustainability of Turkey’s current account," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 543-568, November.
    2. Puri, Tribhuvan N. & Kuan, Chikuang & Maskooki, Kooros, 2002. "An analysis of currency crisis in South Korea," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 121-146.
    3. Freund, Caroline, 2005. "Current account adjustment in industrial countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1278-1298, December.
    4. Nouriel Roubini & Paul Wachtel, 1997. "Current Account Sustainability in Transition Economies," Working Papers 97-03, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    5. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    6. Francois Gurtner, 2002. "Currency Board and Debt Trap: Evidence from Argentina and Relevance for Estonia," CERT Discussion Papers 0204, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    7. Mark J. Holmes & Jesús Otero, 2016. "A pairwise-based approach to examining the Feldstein–Horioka condition of international capital mobility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 279-297, March.
    8. François J. Gurtner, 2004. "Why Did Argentina's Currency Board Collapse?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 679-697, May.
    9. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Current Account Reversals In Selected Transition Countries," International Finance 0510021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate," NBER Working Papers 6834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2013. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," Working Papers hal-04141160, HAL.
    12. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2013. "Global imbalances and the intertemporal external budget constraint: A multicointegration approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5357-5372.
    13. Helmut Herwartz & Fang Xu, 2008. "Reviewing The Sustainability/Stationarity Of Current Account Imbalances With Tests For Bounded Integration," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(3), pages 267-278, June.
    14. Aleksander Aristovnik, 2005. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis And Horioka-Feldstein Puzzle In Transition Economies," International Finance 0510020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Kábrt, Tomáš & Brůna, Karel, 2022. "Asymmetric effects of foreign capital on income inequality: The case of the Post-China 16 countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 613-626.
    16. Tonia Kandiero, 2007. "Working Paper 90 - Current Account Situation in South Africa: Issues to Consider," Working Paper Series 225, African Development Bank.
    17. Das, Debasish Kumar, 2012. "Determinants of current account imbalances in the global economy: A dynamic panel analysis," MPRA Paper 42419, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Iris Claus & David Haugh & Grant Scobie & Jonas Tornquist, 2001. "Saving and growth in an open economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/32, New Zealand Treasury.
    19. Christopoulos, Dimitris & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-459, April.
    20. PAUL CASHIN & C. JOHN McDERMOTT, 1998. "Are Australia's Current Account Deficits Excessive?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 346-361, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account sustainability; Intertemporal approach; FDI; Inertial Vulnerabilities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:122709. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.