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A Measure of Financial Conditions for Pakistan

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  • Mahmood, Asif
  • Ali, Ringchan

Abstract

Emerging literature after the global financial crisis of 2007-08 have highlighted the important role of financial conditions as they provide a comprehensive snapshot of the overall economic health and stability. Following this, many academic researchers, central banks and international organizations developed several composite indices, commonly known as Financial Condition Index (indices) or FCIs. In this this study, we attempt to construct the monthly financial conditions index for Pakistan using high-frequency indicators from domestic and external markets. Our results show that much of the post GFC period in Pakistan’s financial system was characterized by accommodative financial conditions, with three but higher intensity phases of tighter financial conditions. Based on the constructed FCI, we also observed that current ongoing episode of tightening is on average longer than previous two phases. In terms of drivers, our estimations reveal the increasing role of interest rates in determining the financial conditions in Pakistan during the sample period. Moreover, the preliminary analysis does indicate some underlying qualities in our constructed FCI to forecast near-term growth with reasonable precision.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahmood, Asif & Ali, Ringchan, 2024. "A Measure of Financial Conditions for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 121952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:121952
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2008. "A U.S. Financial Conditions Index: Putting Credit Where Credit is Due," IMF Working Papers 2008/161, International Monetary Fund.
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    3. Ms. Carolina Osorio-Buitron & Ms. Filiz D Unsal & Ms. Runchana Pongsaparn, 2011. "A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia," IMF Working Papers 2011/170, International Monetary Fund.
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    5. Alberto Montagnoli & Oreste Napolitano, 2004. "Financial Condition Index and interest rate settings: a comparative analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 1, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Céline Gauthier & Christopher Graham & Ying Liu, 2004. "Financial Conditions Indexes for Canada," Staff Working Papers 04-22, Bank of Canada.
    7. Stéphanie Guichard & David Turner, 2008. "Quantifying the Effect of Financial Conditions on US Activity," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 635, OECD Publishing.
    8. Rey, Hélène & Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia, 2015. "World Asset Markets and the Global Financial Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 10936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Conditions Index; Principal Component Analysis; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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