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Is Hong Kong still an entrepôt under the Sino-U.S. trade war?

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  • Chong, Terence Tai Leung
  • Lo, Vincent Pok Ho

Abstract

This paper studies the Hong Kong economy from a trade intermediary’s perspective. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework, we discover that trade-related external shocks mainly affect the economy through re-exports channel over the offshore trade channel. We observe that re-exports shock does not transmit to the real economy through employment channel. A puzzling phenomenon is that trade-related employment has been in decline since 2008. Moreover, we notice that although the Sino-U.S. trade war exerted much downward pressure on economic growth between 2018 and 2019, the trade intermediary sector swiftly recovered in 2020, reflecting the versatility of the external trade sector in Hong Kong.

Suggested Citation

  • Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Lo, Vincent Pok Ho, 2024. "Is Hong Kong still an entrepôt under the Sino-U.S. trade war?," MPRA Paper 120642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:120642
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra, 1999. "Discrepancies in International Data: An Application to China-Hong Kong Entrepot Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 338-343, May.
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2004. "Intermediaries in Entrepôt Trade: Hong Kong Re‐Exports of Chinese Goods," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 3-35, March.
    3. Jarkko P. Jääskelä & Penelope Smith, 2013. "Terms of Trade Shocks: What Are They and What Do They Do?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(285), pages 145-159, June.
    4. Sharat Ganapati & Woan Foong Wong & Oren Ziv, 2024. "Entrepôt: Hubs, Scale, and Trade Costs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 239-278, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hong Kong; Entrepôt; Re-Export; Sino-U.S. Trade War.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions

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