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On Efficient Utilization of Egypt's Energy Resources: Oil and Natural Gas

Author

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  • Selim, Tarek

Abstract

The focus of this research is analysis and forecast for Egypt's energy resources of oil and natural gas. Running a risk of an oil shortage in the near term, Egypt's strategic energy resource should shift from oil to natural gas. Given an international energy market with high price variations for oil and more stable regional prices for natural gas, an efficient production schedule for Egypt's oil and gas resources based on domestic energy consumption and subsequent export/import forecasts has been derived. The methodology utilized is based on optimal resource extraction rates whereby dynamic efficient production schedules conditional on the constraint of sustainable growth rates in consumption (Hartwick's rule) dictate future energy requirements. Detailed strategies for Egypt's energy sector have been proposed, accompanied by their expected impact on the economy, with the following major guidelines: (1) policy shift from oil to gas as the strategic resource, (2) reduction/removal of oil subsidy, (3) adoption of renewable resource technology, and (4) future investment requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Selim, Tarek, 2007. "On Efficient Utilization of Egypt's Energy Resources: Oil and Natural Gas," MPRA Paper 119506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:119506
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/119506/1/MPRA_paper_119506.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hartwick, John M, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investing of Rents from Exhaustible Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 972-974, December.
    2. John Hartwick, 1977. "Intergenerational Equity and the Investment of Rents from Exhaustible Resources in a Two Sector Model," Working Paper 281, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Selim, Tarek, 2009. "On the Economic Feasibility of Nuclear Power Generation in Egypt," MPRA Paper 118618, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Selim, Tarek, 2010. "Towards a New Energy and Environmental Policy for Egypt: Development of Clean Sources in an Emerging Economy," MPRA Paper 119500, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Egypt; energy policy; oil and natural gas; petroleum; energy prices; energy forecast; energy demand-supply equilibrium; energy consumption; energy production; energy imports; energy exports; energy trade; sustainable energy usage; energy strategy; Hartwick model; dynamic optimization path;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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