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Equity Premium in Efficient Markets

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  • Kausik, B.N.

Abstract

Equity premium, the surplus returns of stocks over bonds, has been an enduring puzzle. While numerous prior works approach the problem assuming the utility of money is invariant across contexts, our approach implies that in efficient markets the utility of money is polymorphic, with risk aversion dependent on the information available in each context, i.e. the discount on each future cash flow depends on all information available on that cash flow. Specifically, we prove that in efficient markets, informed investors maximize return on volatility by being risk-neutral with riskless bonds, and risk-averse with equities, thereby resolving the puzzle. We validate our results on historical data with surprising consistency.

Suggested Citation

  • Kausik, B.N., 2023. "Equity Premium in Efficient Markets," MPRA Paper 119278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:119278
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro, 2005. "Rare Events and the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 11310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ben Groom & David Maddison Pr., 2019. "New Estimates of the Elasticity of Marginal Utility for the UK," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(4), pages 1155-1182, April.
    3. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1995. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(1), pages 73-92.
    4. Hildreth, Clifford & Knowles, Glenn J., 1982. "Some Estimates of Farmers' Utility Functions," Technical Bulletins 54545, University of Minnesota, Agricultural Experiment Station.
    5. Fernando M. Duarte & Carlo Rosa, 2015. "The equity risk premium: a review of models," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 2, pages 39-57.
    6. David J. Evans, 2005. "The elasticity of marginal utility of consumption: estimates for 20 OECD countries," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 197-224, June.
    7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    8. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity premium; efficient markets;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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