IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/118261.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Efecto de las condiciones financieras sobre el desempeño del sector Construcción
[Effect of financial conditions on the performance of the Construction sector]

Author

Listed:
  • Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier

Abstract

The credit channel mechanism of monetary policy describes how a central bank’s policy changes affect the credit strategies of private banks. This has a direct effect on the amount of credit that banks issue to firms and consumers, which in turn affects the aggregated demand, employment and inflation. This paper tests the hypothesis that financial conditions relative to the construction sector, according to the Senior Loan Officers Survey, are capable of foreseeing changes in sectoral activity. Indeed, as shown in several international studies, supply and demand standards for mortgages, real-estate and construction credits have predictive power over credit changes, sectoral activity and housing supply and demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier, 2018. "Efecto de las condiciones financieras sobre el desempeño del sector Construcción [Effect of financial conditions on the performance of the Construction sector]," MPRA Paper 118261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:118261
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/118261/5/DT_creditos102_mpra_v2.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    2. Zuzanna Wosko, 2016. "Determinants of credit in the Polish banking sector before and after the GFC according to information from the NBP Senior Loan Officer Survey. Does supply or demand matter?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Stéphanie Guichard & David Haugh & David Turner, 2009. "Quantifying the Effect of Financial Conditions in the Euro Area, Japan, United Kingdom and United States," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 677, OECD Publishing.
    4. Hempell, Hannah S. & Kok, Christoffer, 2010. "The impact of supply constraints on bank lending in the euro area - crisis induced crunching?," Working Paper Series 1262, European Central Bank.
    5. repec:ulb:ulbeco:2013/13388 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    7. Christian Beer & Walter Waschiczek, 2012. "Analyzing Corporate Loan Growth in Austria Using Bank Lending Survey Data," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 61-80.
    8. de Bondt, Gabe & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis & Scopel, Silvia, 2010. "The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth," Working Paper Series 1160, European Central Bank.
    9. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Kadareja, Arjan & Kok, Christoffer & Protopapa, Marco, 2010. "Do bank loans and credit standards have an effect on output? A panel approach for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1150, European Central Bank.
    10. Elisa Keller, 2007. "Classical and Bayesian Methods for the VAR Analysis: International Comparisons," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(6), pages 149-202, November-.
    11. Thomas J. Cunningham, 2006. "The predictive power of the Senior Loan Officer Survey: do lending officers know anything special?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    13. Bell, Venetia & Pugh, Alice, 2014. "The Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey," Bank of England working papers 515, Bank of England.
    14. Blaes, Barno, 2011. "Bank-related loan supply factors during the crisis: An analysis based on the German bank lending survey," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Mr. Matteo Ciccarelli & Mr. Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Bayesian Vars: A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System," IMF Working Papers 2003/102, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Alfaro, Rodrigo & Pacheco, David & Sagner, Andrés, 2013. "Dinámica de la frecuencia de impago de los créditos de consumo en cuotas," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(318), pages .329-343, abril-jun.
    17. Martin Pintaric, 2016. "What is the Effect of Credit Standards and Credit Demand on Loan Growth? Evidence from the Croatian Bank Lending Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(3), pages 335-358, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Köhler-Ulbrich, Petra & Hempell, Hannah S. & Scopel, Silvia, 2016. "The euro area bank lending survey," Occasional Paper Series 179, European Central Bank.
    2. Andrea Orame, 2020. "The role of bank supply in the Italian credit market: evidence from a new regional survey," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1279, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Bell, Venetia & Pugh, Alice, 2014. "The Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey," Bank of England working papers 515, Bank of England.
    4. Filardo, Andrew J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2020. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Khosravi, Taha, 2015. "The Impact of a Low Interest Rate Environment: Empirical Evidence from the Euro Area Bank Lending Survey," MPRA Paper 67363, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Christian Beer & Walter Waschiczek, 2012. "Analyzing Corporate Loan Growth in Austria Using Bank Lending Survey Data," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 61-80.
    7. repec:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1617/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Eva Hromadkova & Oldrich Koza & Petr Polak, 2017. "The bank lending survey," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2016/2017, chapter 0, pages 115-124, Czech National Bank.
      • Eva Hromadkova & Oldrich Koza & Petr Polak & Nikol Polakova, 2018. "The Bank Lending Survey," Working Papers IES 2018/28, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2018.
    9. Matthieu Darracq Paries, 2018. "Financial frictions and monetary policy conduct," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-01 edited by Ferhat Mihoubi.
    10. Paolo Del Giovane & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2017. "Assessing the Sources of Credit Supply Tightening: Was the Sovereign Debt Crisis Different from Lehman?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 197-234, June.
    11. Lozano, Francisco-Javier, 2013. "Evaluación de modelos de predicción para la venta de viviendas [Evaluation of forecasting models for house sales]," MPRA Paper 118652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Andrea Nobili & Andrea Orame, 2015. "Estimating the effects of a credit supply restriction: is there a bias in the Bank Lending Survey?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 266, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Kanngiesser Derrick & Martin Reiner & Maurin Laurent & Moccero Diego, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of shocks to bank capital buffers in the Euro Area," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    14. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    15. Del Giovane, Paolo & Eramo, Ginette & Nobili, Andrea, 2011. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2719-2732, October.
    16. D. Tutberidze & D. Japaridze, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Approach," Вестник Киевского национального университета имени Тараса Шевченко. Экономика., Socionet;Киевский национальный университет имени Тараса Шевченко, vol. 2(191), pages 42-49.
    17. P. Siklos, B. Lavender, 2014. "The Credit Cycle And The Business Cycle In Canada And The U.S.: Two Solitudes," LCERPA Working Papers wm0065, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    18. Aleksandra Nocoń, 2020. "Sustainable Approach to the Normalization Process of the UK’s Monetary Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-14, November.
    19. Демешев Борис Борисович & Малаховская Оксана Анатольевна, 2016. "Макроэкономическое Прогнозирование С Помощью Bvar Литтермана," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 20(4), pages 691-710.
    20. Kanngiesser, Derrick & Martin, Reiner & Maurin, Laurent & Moccero, Diego, 2017. "Estimating the impact of shocks to bank capital in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2077, European Central Bank.
    21. Darracq-Paries, Matthieu & De Santis, Roberto A., 2015. "A non-standard monetary policy shock: The ECB's 3-year LTROs and the shift in credit supply," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-34.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit; bank lending survey; housing; real estate; construction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:118261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.