IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/118090.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Targeting Inflation Targeting: The Influence of Interest Groups

Author

Listed:
  • Wilson, Bonnie
  • Heckelman, Jac

Abstract

We examine whether sectional interest groups influence monetary policy goals in a manner consistent with their interests as distributive coalitions. In particular, we explore whether bank groups and labor groups are associated with the incidence of inflation targeting by the central bank. Controlling for a variety of economic and institutional factors, our main findings reveal that bank groups are associated with a higher probability that a country is an inflation targeter while labor groups are associated with a lower probability. The findings are conditional on the level of democracy and on aspects of central bank independence.

Suggested Citation

  • Wilson, Bonnie & Heckelman, Jac, 2021. "Targeting Inflation Targeting: The Influence of Interest Groups," MPRA Paper 118090, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:118090
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/118090/1/IT_n_submit.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claessens, Stijn & Coleman, Nicholas & Donnelly, Michael, 2018. "“Low-For-Long” interest rates and banks’ interest margins and profitability: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 1-16.
    2. Barnett William A. & Jawadi Fredj & Ftiti Zied, 2020. "Causal relationships between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-26, December.
    3. Gregory D. Hess & Cameron A. Shelton, 2016. "Congress and the Federal Reserve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 603-633, June.
    4. Demirguc, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1999. "Determinants of Commercial Bank Interest Margins and Profitability: Some International Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 13(2), pages 379-408, May.
    5. Hibbs, Douglas A., 1977. "Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1467-1487, December.
    6. Moretti, Laura & Onorante, Luca & Zakipour-Saber, Shayan, 2019. "Phillips curves in the euro area," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Gabillon, Emmanuelle & Martimort, David, 2004. "The benefits of central bank's political independence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 353-378, April.
    8. Tsoungui Belinga,Vincent De Paul & Doukali,Mohamed, 2019. "The Moroccan New Keynesian Phillips Curve : A Structural Econometric Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9018, The World Bank.
    9. Singhal, Monica, 2008. "Special interest groups and the allocation of public funds," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 548-564, April.
    10. Dennis Coates & Jac Heckelman & Bonnie Wilson, 2007. "Determinants of interest group formation," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 377-391, December.
    11. Lucotte, Yannick, 2010. "The choice of adopting inflation targeting in emerging economies: Do domestic institutions matter?," MPRA Paper 27118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Douglas A. Hibbs, 1994. "The Partisan Model Of Macroeconomic Cycles: More Theory And Evidence For The United States," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 1-23, March.
    13. Ayadi, Rym & Naceur, Sami Ben & Casu, Barbara & Quinn, Barry, 2016. "Does Basel compliance matter for bank performance?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 15-32.
    14. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    16. Dennis Mueller & Peter Murrell, 1986. "Interest groups and the size of government," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 125-145, January.
    17. Yannick Lucotte, 2010. "The choice of adopting inflation targeting in emerging economies: Do domestic institutions matter?," Post-Print hal-00539713, HAL.
    18. Wandschneider, Kirsten, 2008. "The Stability of the Interwar Gold Exchange Standard: Did Politics Matter?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(1), pages 151-181, March.
    19. Federico M. Giesenow & Jakob de Haan, 2019. "The influence of government ideology on monetary policy: New cross‐country evidence based on dynamic heterogeneous panels," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 216-239, July.
    20. Peter Murrell, 1984. "An examination of the factors affecting the formation of interest groups in OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 151-171, January.
    21. Potrafke, Niklas, 2017. "Partisan politics: The empirical evidence from OECD panel studies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 712-750.
    22. Mueller,Dennis C., 2003. "Public Choice III," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521894753, October.
    23. Christopher R. Knittel, 2006. "The Adoption Of State Electricity Regulation: The Role Of Interest Groups," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 201-222, June.
    24. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    25. Benjamin M. Blau, 2017. "Lobbying, political connections and emergency lending by the Federal Reserve," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 333-358, September.
    26. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    27. Gary Anderson & William Shughart & Robert Tollison, 1988. "A public choice theory of the great contraction," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 3-23, October.
    28. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Andrés Murcia Pabón & Juan Contreras, 2018. "Determinants of bank profitability in emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 686, Bank for International Settlements.
    29. Jakob Haan & Christina Bodea & Raymond Hicks & Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger, 2018. "Central Bank Independence Before and After the Crisis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(2), pages 183-202, June.
    30. Ana Carolina Garriga, 2016. "Central Bank Independence in the World: A New Data Set," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 849-868, October.
    31. Alberto Alesina, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 651-678.
    32. Bischoff, Ivo, 2003. "Determinants of the Increase in the Number of Interest Groups in Western Democracies: Theoretical Considerations and Evidence from 21 OECD Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 114(1-2), pages 197-218, January.
    33. Yannick LUCOTTE, 2010. "The Choice of Adopting Inflation Targeting in Emerging Economies: Do Domestic Institutions Matter?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1561, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    34. repec:wly:soecon:v:81:2:y:2014:p:435-456 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Anna Samarina & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Right On Target: Exploring The Factors Leading To Inflation Targeting Adoption," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 372-389, April.
    36. Alexander W. Salter & William J. Luther, 2019. "Adaptation and central banking," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 180(3), pages 243-256, September.
    37. Drazen, Allan, 2000. "Interest-rate and borrowing defense against speculative attack," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 303-348, December.
    38. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
    39. Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December.
    40. Heckelman, Jac C, 2000. "Consistent Estimates of the Impact of Special Interest Groups on Economic Growth," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(3-4), pages 319-327, September.
    41. Jac C. Heckelman & Bonnie Wilson, 2014. "Interest Groups and the “Rise and Decline” of Growth," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(2), pages 435-456, October.
    42. de Haan, Jakob & van 't Hag, Gert Jan, 1995. "Variation in Central Bank Independence across Countries: Some Provisional Empirical Evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 85(3-4), pages 335-351, December.
    43. Richard E. Wagner, 1986. "Central Banking and the Fed: A Public Choice Perspective," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 6(2), pages 519-543, Fall.
    44. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
    45. Tu DQ. Le & Thanh Ngo, 2020. "The determinants of bank profitability : A cross-country analysis," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 65-73.
    46. Mukherjee, Bumba & Singer, David Andrew, 2008. "Monetary Institutions, Partisanship, and Inflation Targeting," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 323-358, April.
    47. Grier, Kevin B., 1996. "Congressional oversight committee influence on U.S. monetary policy revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 571-579, December.
    48. Hartmann, Matthias & Herwartz, Helmut, 2012. "Causal relations between inflation and inflation uncertainty—Cross sectional evidence in favour of the Friedman–Ball hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 144-147.
    49. Chappell, Henry W, Jr & Keech, William R, 1986. "Party Differences in Macroeconomic Policies and Outcomes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 71-74, May.
    50. Căpraru Bogdan & Ihnatov Iulian, 2015. "Determinants Of Bank’s Profitability In EU15," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 62(1), pages 93-101, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-François & Persson, Eric, 2022. "Ideology and monetary policy. The role of political parties’ stances in the European Central Bank’s parliamentary hearings," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Fraccaroli, Nicolò & Giovannini, Alessandro & Jamet, Jean-Francois & Persson, Eric, 2022. "Ideology and monetary policy: the role of political parties’ stances in the ECB’s parliamentary hearings," Working Paper Series 2655, European Central Bank.
    3. Louis Rouanet & Peter Hazlett, 2023. "The redistributive politics of monetary policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 194(1), pages 1-26, January.
    4. Heckelman, Jac C & Wilson, Bonnie, 2023. "Aid, Reform, and Interest Groups," MPRA Paper 118182, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dodge Cahan & Luisa Doerr & Niklas Potrafke, 2019. "Government ideology and monetary policy in OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 181(3), pages 215-238, December.
    2. Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Government ideology and economic policy-making in the United States—a survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 145-207, January.
    3. Stojanovikj, Martin & Petrevski, Goran, 2024. "The choice of monetary regimes in emerging market economies: Inflation targeting versus its alternatives," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 237-260.
    4. Niklas Potrafke, 2017. "Government Ideology and Economic Policy-Making in the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 6444, CESifo.
    5. Oliver Bachmann & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Ruben Seiberlich, 2021. "Partisan bias in inflation expectations," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 513-536, March.
    6. Atsuyoshi Morozumi & Michael Bleaney & Zakari Mumuni, 2020. "Inflation targeting in low‐income countries: Does IT work?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 1529-1550, November.
    7. Jac C. Heckelman & Bonnie Wilson, 2014. "Interest Groups and the “Rise and Decline” of Growth," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(2), pages 435-456, October.
    8. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
    9. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Determinants of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271121, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Conrad, Christian & Hartmann, Matthias, 2019. "On the determinants of long-run inflation uncertainty: Evidence from a panel of 17 developed economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 233-250.
    11. Anna Samarina & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Right On Target: Exploring The Factors Leading To Inflation Targeting Adoption," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 372-389, April.
    12. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    13. Hanna Samaryna & Jakob de Haan, 2011. "Right on Target: Exploring the Determinants of Inflation Targeting Adoption," DNB Working Papers 321, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    14. Stojanovikj, Martin & Petrevski, Goran, 2019. "Adopting inflation targeting in emerging markets: exploring the factors behind the decision," MPRA Paper 115797, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jun 2020.
    15. Dennis Coates & Jac Heckelman & Bonnie Wilson, 2011. "Special-interest groups and growth," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 439-457, June.
    16. Dodge Cahan & Niklas Potrafke, 2021. "The Democrat-Republican presidential growth gap and the partisan balance of the state governments," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(3), pages 577-601, December.
    17. Jordan, Jerry L. & Luther, William J., 2022. "Central bank independence and the Federal Reserve's new operating regime," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 510-515.
    18. Oriola, Hugo, 2023. "Political monetary cycles: An empirical study," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Federico M. Giesenow & Jakob de Haan, 2019. "The influence of government ideology on monetary policy: New cross‐country evidence based on dynamic heterogeneous panels," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 216-239, July.
    20. Cleomar Gomes da silva & Flavio V. Vieira, 2016. "Monetary policy decision making: the role of ideology, institutions and central bank independence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2051-2062.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; inflation targeting; special interests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:118090. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.