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Modelling and Assessing Public Health Policies to Counteract Italian Measles Outbreaks

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  • Scire', Giovanni

Abstract

This study aims to understand, through explanatory research, the key factors that led to the 2017 measles outbreak in Italy, the causes of the low level of immunisation and the causes of possible cyclical phenomena of measles epidemics. This topic's comprehension has required a holistic approach, merging epidemiological aspects, socioeconomic aspects (including the evolution of mistrust in vaccinations, infodemy and fake news) and health law constraints. A specific SIR System Dynamics (SD) model was built to reproduce the relevant cause-and-effect relationships between social interactions, the public institutions behaviour and the measles outbreaks. SD results permit the assessment of the health policies to counteract the measles outbreaks. Findings, limits and further research recommendations are briefly reported in the conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Scire', Giovanni, 2021. "Modelling and Assessing Public Health Policies to Counteract Italian Measles Outbreaks," MPRA Paper 117088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:117088
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/117088/1/MPRA_paper_117088.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sterman, John., 1994. "Learning in and about complex systems," Working papers 3660-94., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    2. Negar Darabi & Niyousha Hosseinichimeh, 2020. "System dynamics modeling in health and medicine: a systematic literature review," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 36(1), pages 29-73, January.
    3. Kimberly M. Thompson & Cassie L. Odahowski, 2016. "The Costs and Valuation of Health Impacts of Measles and Rubella Risk Management Policies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(7), pages 1357-1382, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    System Dynamics; Infodemic; Measles; Communicable diseases; SIR Model; Vaccination; Public Health;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • N34 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: 1913-
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification
    • Z18 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Public Policy

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