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The Stochastic Advance-Retreat Course: An Approach to Analyse Social-Economic Evolution

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  • Feng, Dai
  • Yuan-Zheng, Zhong

Abstract

The paper presents the basic theory and conceptual model for advance-retreat course and provides the analytic model the stochastic advance-retreat course and the solving method of it, discusses the relations between the endogenous resistance and subject interests increase with the periodic vibration in an advance-retreat course, gets some results, like heightening appropriately the risk-free interest rate will be favorable to subject interests’ increasing in stable, interests increasing in high-speed will result in the fast increase of resistance, the subject progress in a appropriate pace may bring the conclusion such as lasting interests increase and return with higher-level interests, etc. Finally, the empirical researches empirical, on data of USA GDP (chained) price index, has been made to the stochastic advance-retreat model, and the results show that the stochastic advance-retreat model can describe USA economic development process in recent 65 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Dai & Yuan-Zheng, Zhong, 2006. "The Stochastic Advance-Retreat Course: An Approach to Analyse Social-Economic Evolution," MPRA Paper 117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:117
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic process; advance-retreat course; the basic theory; analytic model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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