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The aftermath of Nigeria’s 2023 presidential elections and its impact on the sub-region

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  • Kohnert, Dirk

Abstract

Presidential elections were held in Nigeria on 25 February 2023. The candidate of Nigeria's ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party Bola Ahmed Tinubu won the election. He was known as a political 'godfather' in the South West. His major contender, Atiku Abubakar, 76, running on behalf of the major oppositional People's Democratic Party (PDP) lost, as well as the third, Peter Obi, 61, a candidate for the little-known Labor Party. He had hoped to break the two-party system that ruled the country since the end of military rule. But he failed despite enjoying passionate support on social media, especially among the Nigerian youth. Acting President Buhari, whose term has ended, had renewed his call for foreign powers not to interfere in Nigeria's internal affairs. Given the recent history of military coups in West Africa, including Russia's involvement, the military command again dismissed coup rumours. However, the latter were largely ignored by the general public anyway. Most people focused on more pressing concerns such as insecurity, fuel shortages and a shortage of new banknotes. Although Nigeria is a resource-rich country and oil and gas revenues have funded national budgets for decades, around 40% of Nigerians (83 million people) live below the poverty line while another 25% (53 million) are at risk. So far, Nigeria has not been able to benefit from rising global oil prices. Oil production has fallen to historic lows since 2021. Gasoline subsidies continue to consume too much of oil revenue. Nigeria's growth prospects are bleak due to further declines in oil production and heightened uncertainty. The new president has to cooperate closely with ECOWAS to tackle gang violence and insecurity in the West African region. The cooperation documents Nigeria's role as a political, economic and security policy hegemon in West Africa, often said ‘too big to fail’, as it is by far the largest and most powerful nation in sub-Saharan Africa alongside South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Kohnert, Dirk, 2023. "The aftermath of Nigeria’s 2023 presidential elections and its impact on the sub-region," MPRA Paper 116567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:116567
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nigeria; presidential election; governance; Military coup; conspiracy theory; deep state; Poverty; Boko Haram; international trade; migration; sustainable development; West-Africa; ECOWAS; WAEMU; Sub-Saharan Africa; African Studies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania
    • N37 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Africa; Oceania
    • N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O35 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Social Innovation
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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