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Crime surge and institutional weakness: Are they associated? Evidence from a conflict country

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  • Onour, Ibrahim

Abstract

This paper investigates the degree of association between major four crimes in Sudan, including illegal drug trafficking, murder, theft, and adultery, with indicators of institutional weakness that include surge in other four crimes: duty & customs, forger, passport, and firearms & ammunition crimes. These later four crimes has been considered indicators of institutional weakness because upswing in these crimes is a reflection of corruption or negligence, or incompetence of institutional performance in the country. The canonical correlation test result indicates there is a very high and significant association between the major four crimes and the indicators of institutional weakness. This finding implies institutional weakness can nurture a crime surge in the country. Cluster analysis indicates the type of crimes in conflict states of Darfur region are featured in the rest of the country except in the capital state, Khartoum which represent a separate cluster on its own. Cluster analysis also indicates murder crime is connected with adultery, and theft crime is associated with firearms & ammunition crimes; customs & duty crimes are connected with passport and illegal drugs crimes. However, illegal drug crime is connected with murder, theft, and adultery crimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Onour, Ibrahim, 2020. "Crime surge and institutional weakness: Are they associated? Evidence from a conflict country," MPRA Paper 115995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:115995
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    Keywords

    Crimes; Multivariate analysis; Sudan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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