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A structural model for corporate profit in the U.S. industry

Author

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  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo

Abstract

I estimate a theoretically and statistically satisfying model to account for corporate profit represented by Net Rental Income (NRI) for one of the largest Real Estate Investment Trust companies (REIT) in the U.S. I claim that I have found an accurate method to forecasts the direction and dollar amount of corporate profit in the apartment industry in The U.S. that can be extended to the remaining branches of the U.S. industry. The variables that together account for ninety seven percent of the variation in NRI for this apartment company are, one-period time lag of lease renewals, the Federal Funds interest rate end of month, total gross potential of the company, total concessions, two-period time lag of move-ins, the ratio between total non-farm employment and total construction permits authorized, the inventory of houses in the U.S, one-period time lag of move-outs and this REIT apartment units occupied.

Suggested Citation

  • Gomez-Sorzano, Gustavo, 2006. "A structural model for corporate profit in the U.S. industry," MPRA Paper 1144, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Dec 2006.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:1144
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/1144/1/MPRA_paper_1144.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Puri, Anil K. & Van Lierop, Johannes, 1988. "Forecasting housing starts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 125-134.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    REIT; Corporate Profit; Net Rental Income (NRI); demand for lease renewals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D41 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Perfect Competition
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory

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