IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/110113.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Reform in the Republic of Moldova. Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (SDGE) simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Vîntu, Denis

Abstract

The article describes a dynamic general equilibrium for the Republic of Moldova, in the context of declining oil prices and COVID-19. We try to introduce an intergenerational model with the stochastic component, where we describe each self-employed agent, rather we try to adapt the model in a simulative tax reform, a transition from the progressive system that currently we have to a flat tax. For our hypothesis, it is assumed that there are 4 cohorts of population, selected by level of education (secondary, high school, university and lifelong learning) that pay taxes in a system based on social solidarity. Thus, the first conclusions can be drawn, namely that the tax system with 4 different rates 12, 15, 19 and 23% is the one that best approaches the Pareto type optimum, as opposed to the flat tax, which respects dynamic equilibrium. Public budget revenues are simulated in IS-LM-Laffer framework. And the forecast of budget accumulation is made using 4 distinct prediction models: naïve random walk, ARIMA, univariate model (AR) and vector error correction model (VECM). In addition, the main result is placed on the hypothesis that the empirical testing suggest that, unlike complicated models that have difficulty overcoming naïve random walk imitation, using techniques of associating and including monetary and fiscal indicators in linear regression, as well as adding structural shapes, some parameters of the models are quite significant. Of these, it seems that the closest to the economic reality of the country is the univariate model (AR), being also the most relevant for predicting the out-put gap, but also the stochastic component: the basic interest rate of the NBM's monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Vîntu, Denis, 2021. "Fiscal Reform in the Republic of Moldova. Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (SDGE) simulation," MPRA Paper 110113, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 May 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/110113/1/MPRA_paper_109844.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/110114/1/MPRA_paper_110114.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles T. Carlstrom & David Altig, 1999. "Marginal Tax Rates and Income Inequality in a Life-Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1197-1215, December.
    2. Marta González-Torrabadella & Josep Pijoan-Mas, 2006. "Flat tax reforms: a general equilibrium evaluation for Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 30(2), pages 317-351, May.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    4. Lans Bovenberg, A., 1993. "Investment-promoting policies in open economies : The importance of intergenerational and international distributional effects," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 3-54, May.
    5. Bovenberg, A.L., 1993. "Investment-promoting policies in open economies : The importance of intergenerational and international distributional effects," Other publications TiSEM 2a11d648-7fac-4a3f-b6bf-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bettendorf, Leon J.H. & Heijdra, Ben J., 1999. "Intergenerational and international welfare leakages of a tariff in a small open economy," CCSO Working Papers 199910, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    2. Mathieu-Bolh, Nathalie, 2017. "Can tax reforms help achieve sustainable development?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 135-163.
    3. Andreas Peichl, 2009. "The Benefits and Problems of Linking Micro and Macro Models — Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 301-329, November.
    4. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2010. "The Transitional Dynamics Of Fiscal Policy In Small Open Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 1-28, February.
    5. Peichl, Andreas, 2008. "The benefits of linking CGE and Microsimulation Models - Evidence from a Flat Tax analysis," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 08-6, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    6. Javier Díaz-Giménez & Josep Pijoan-Mas, 2006. "Flat Tax Reforms in the U.S.: A Boon for the Income Poor," Working Papers wp2006_0611, CEMFI.
    7. Marco Cagetti & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2004. "Taxation, entrepreneurship and wealth," Working Papers 632, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-927, July.
    9. Deschamps, P J, 1993. "Joint Tests for Regularity and Autocorrelation in Allocation Systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 195-211, April-Jun.
    10. Leon Bettendorf & Ben Heijdra, 2001. "Intergenerational and International Welfare Leakages of a Product Subsidy in a Small Open Economy," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 8(5), pages 705-729, November.
    11. Heijdra, B.J. & Meijdam, A.C., 1997. "Public Investment in a Small Open Economy," Other publications TiSEM ba87d4b3-3981-46d7-b3c8-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Ben J. Heijdra & Ward E. Romp, 2008. "A life-cycle overlapping-generations model of the small open economy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 88-121, January.
    13. Leon Bettendorf & Ben Heijdra, 2001. "Intergenerational welfare effects of a tariff under monopolistic competition," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 73(3), pages 313-346, October.
    14. Brüggemann, Bettina & Yoo, Jinhyuk, 2015. "Aggregate and distributional effects of increasing taxes on top income earners," SAFE Working Paper Series 113, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    15. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2006. "The Macroeconomic Dynamics Of Demographic Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 349-370, June.
    16. A. Bovenberg & Ben Heijdra, 2002. "Environmental Abatement and Intergenerational Distribution," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 23(1), pages 45-84, September.
    17. Jenny Ligthart & Gerard C. van der Meijden, 2010. "Coordinated Tax-Tariff Reforms, Informality, and Welfare Distribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 3107, CESifo.
    18. Salvador Barrios & Viginta Ivaškaitė-Tamošiūnė & Anamaria Maftei & Edlira Narazani & Janos Varga, 2020. "Progressive Tax Reforms in Flat Tax Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 83-107, March.
    19. repec:dgr:rugsom:99c19 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Marco Cagetti & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2009. "Estate Taxation, Entrepreneurship, and Wealth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 85-111, March.
    21. Christian Jaag & Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2010. "Pension reform, retirement, and life-cycle unemployment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(5), pages 556-585, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal reform; monetary policy; cross-country convergence; prediction and forecasting methods; dynamic general equilibrium model; Pareto optimal balance; ARIMA modeling; time series analysis; Box – Jenkins method.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.