Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on mortality in Russian regions

For many years the Department MFRD of IE KarRC RAS, together with scientists of PetrSU, UWF and medical institutions, have been conducting comprehensive research at the intersection of economics, demography, medicine and ecology. Studies were supported by 10 RFBR and RGNF grants. This article examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Russian regions. The purpose of the study is to identify the factors that during the pandemic have contributed to a significant mortality increase in Russian regions. The work assessed the impact of socio-economic, demographic, medical and geographical indicators at different stages of the pandemic on the level of morbidity and mortality, taking into account the characteristics of regions. It is shown that in general, the increase in mortality has been facilitated by a higher shares of retirees and urban population, the location of the region in the center of the country and a drop in citizens' incomes in 2020 (compared to 2019). The first (spring) wave of the pandemic in Russia was relatively low, largely due to the imposed strict restrictions. Therefore, only in some months did the lower availability of hospital beds of the population of the region contribute to the increase in mortality. The highest increase in the mortality rate was in the regions of the Central Federal District. During the summer period, the incidence decreased and restrictions were relaxed, but increased mobility of citizens led to an increase in mortality in the Volga Federal District regions, through which the main roads and railways pass. By the end of summer, the availability of doctors and beds in the region became significant factors influencing the increase in mortality, in addition to the three main indicators. In the fall, the second wave began, during this period the increase in mortality depended on the location of the region, the proportion of the urban population and the availability of doctors in the region. In some months, the level of income of the population and its change in 2020 had a significant impact. In December, the situation in the Volga Federal District and the Siberian Federal District stabilized, while mortality in the Southern regions of the country began to grow. The research was carried out by scientists of the IE KarRC RAS and RIH and can be used in the field of regional medical and demographic policy to increase the effectiveness of management decisions and preserve the public health of the nation.