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Analyzing Debt Sustainability: Concepts and Tools Applied for Guinea, Rwanda,and Senegal

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  • Gunter, Bernhard
  • Wodon, Quentin

Abstract

A sustainable debt is a precondition for sustainable development. Yet the analysis of a country’s debt sustainability is a complex task given issues related to (1) establishing the actual debt outstanding and future debt-service obligations; (2) defining appropriate sustainability indicators; and (3) projecting future macroeconomic variables like gross domestic product, exports, interest rates, inflation rates, and exchange rates. These projections are crucial because debt sustainability analysis is necessarily forward-looking and highly sensitive to changes in these macroeconomic variables. This paper provides a case study of debt sustainability analysis in three African countries to illustrate the key concepts and complexities involved in such analysis. We begin with an overview of the main debt sustainability indicators as they typically are used in practice. We then provide a brief historical review of previous and current debt relief initiatives and illustrate how they have been applied in each of the three countries. The paper then presents the debt sustainability analyses using a recently developed simulation tool (SimSIP Debt).

Suggested Citation

  • Gunter, Bernhard & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Analyzing Debt Sustainability: Concepts and Tools Applied for Guinea, Rwanda,and Senegal," MPRA Paper 10648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10648
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernhard G. Gunter, 2001. "Does the HIPC Initiative Achieve its Goal of Debt Sustainability?," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-100, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Bernhard G. Gunter, 2002. "What’s Wrong with the HIPC Initiative and What’s Next?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 20(1), pages 5-24, March.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2002. "Guinea; Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility—Staff Report and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion," IMF Staff Country Reports 2002/226, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt sustainability; macroeconomic projections; debt relief;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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