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The impact of macroeconomic variables on Stock ‎market in United Kingdom

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  • NEIFAR, MALIKA
  • Dhouib, Salma ‎
  • Bouhamed, Jihen ‎
  • Ben Abdallah, Fatma ‎
  • Arous, Islem ‎
  • Ben Braiek, Fatma ‎
  • Mrabet, Donia ‎

Abstract

The key objective of this study is to shed light on the relationship between the stock market ‎and macroeconomic factors (Interest rate, Consumer Price Index, Exchange rate) in United ‎Kingdom for the period Pre Global Financial Crisis 2008 (GFC); from January 1999 to ‎December 2007. The finding of Johansen Cointegration, and Granger and Toda Yamamoto ‎‎(TY) Causality tests show respectively that there is no co-integration between variables, no ‎causal relation is detected from macro factors to stock return, and a unidirectional causal ‎relation is depicted from exchange rate to stock price. While from VAR Granger non ‎Causality/Block Exogeneity Wald Tests results, both inflation (INF) and exchange rate ‎growth (EXCG) Granger cause the UK stock market Return. Moreover, the ARDL ‎specification show a stable long run effect of all considered macroeconomic factors on the ‎UK stock price. Precisely, the results of the ECM show that all considered macroeconomic ‎factors drives UK stock price toward long-run equilibrium at a fast speed.‎

Suggested Citation

  • NEIFAR, MALIKA & Dhouib, Salma ‎ & Bouhamed, Jihen ‎ & Ben Abdallah, Fatma ‎ & Arous, Islem ‎ & Ben Braiek, Fatma ‎ & Mrabet, Donia ‎, 2021. "The impact of macroeconomic variables on Stock ‎market in United Kingdom," MPRA Paper 106246, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:106246
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Neifar, Malika, 2023. "Macroeconomic Factors and UK Stock Market: Evidence through the Non-Linear ARDL model," MPRA Paper 116298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Amina Malik & Babar Zaheer Butt & Haroon Aziz, 2022. "COVID-19 Entwined the Dynamic Relationship between Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Variables," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 13(4), pages 11-22.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    UK Stock market; Macroeconomic variables; Causality; ECM; Cointegration; ARDL model; ‎F_PSSTest;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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