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Cost-effective conservation in the face of climate change: combining ecological-economic modelling and climate science for the cost-effective spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures in agricultural landscapes

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  • Gerling, Charlotte
  • Drechsler, Martin
  • Keuler, Klaus
  • Leins, Johannes A.
  • Radtke, Kai
  • Schulz, Björn
  • Sturm, Astrid
  • Wätzold, Frank

Abstract

In agricultural landscapes, climate change has profound impacts on species that society aims to conserve. In response to climate change, species may adapt spatially (with range shifts) and temporally (with phenological adaptations), which may make formerly effective conservation sites and measures less effective. As climate change also has an impact on yields, opportunity costs of land use-based conservation measures may also change spatially and with respect to the timing of conservation measures. Due to these spatio-temporal modifications of the costs of conservation measures and their impacts on species, formerly cost-effective conservation sites and measures may no longer be so in a changing climate. We combine ecological-economic modelling with climate science to investigate climate change-induced modifications of the timing and spatial allocation of cost-effective conservation measures. We apply our model to the case study of conserving the large marsh grasshopper on agricultural grasslands in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein. Comparing the periods 2020-2039 and 2060-2079, our model indeed indicates that climate change induces modifications in the cost-effective spatial allocation of conservation measures and that measures which are adapted to phenological changes remain cost-effective under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerling, Charlotte & Drechsler, Martin & Keuler, Klaus & Leins, Johannes A. & Radtke, Kai & Schulz, Björn & Sturm, Astrid & Wätzold, Frank, 2021. "Cost-effective conservation in the face of climate change: combining ecological-economic modelling and climate science for the cost-effective spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures in agr," MPRA Paper 105608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105608
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Schöttker & Frank Wätzold, 2022. "Climate Change and the Cost-Effective Governance Mode for Biodiversity Conservation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(2), pages 409-436, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate ecological-economic model; conservation planning; large marsh grasshopper; cultural landscapes; biodiversity conservation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

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