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Leaning against the bubble. Can theoretical models match the empirical evidence?

Author

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  • Ciccarone, Giuseppe
  • Giuli, Francesco
  • Marchetti, Enrico
  • Tancioni, Massimiliano

Abstract

By estimating a Markov-switching model, we provide new evidence on the nonlinear effects of monetary policy shocks on asset prices and on their bubble component. We show that regime-dependence is mainly driven by the states affecting the interest rate equation. We also show that, following a positive interest rate shock, an OLG model of asset price bubbles with credit frictions and sticky prices may predict an increase in the real rate, a recession/deflation and an increase in the bubble value. This result, which is new to the theoretical literature, matches both the previously existing and our empirical evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciccarone, Giuseppe & Giuli, Francesco & Marchetti, Enrico & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2020. "Leaning against the bubble. Can theoretical models match the empirical evidence?," MPRA Paper 105004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:105004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila, 2021. "Leaning against the Bubble: Central Bank Intervention in Walrasian Asset Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-12, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset price bubbles; monetary policy; overlapping generations models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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