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Modeling and Forecasting Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Post-Covid Era

Author

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  • Van, Germinal G.

Abstract

The coronavirus has deleteriously affected a great majority of countries in the world. Developed societies such as the United States and the majority of Western countries have had the highest rates of mortality because of the pandemic. Sub-Saharan Africa, on the other hand, has been the continent where the pandemic has not done excessive damages. Africa’s GDP growth did not significantly decrease compared with the other continents. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to model and forecast economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa in the post-COVID era and to examine the factors that are part of the growth process of the continent. To appropriately develop an econometric model of the economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa in the post-COVID era, we decided to use the time-series data. This time-series data will be the dataset used to develop the statistical model that will enable us to forecast the economic growth of the continent in the post-COVID era.

Suggested Citation

  • Van, Germinal G., 2020. "Modeling and Forecasting Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Post-Covid Era," MPRA Paper 103153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:103153
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometrics; Macroeconomics; Mathematical Modeling; Time-Series Analysis; Autoregressive Model; Statistical Modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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