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Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Pakistan

Author

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  • M. Idrees Khawaja

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

The study employs Girton and Roper (1977) measure of exchange market pressure—sum of exchange rate depreciation and foreign reserves outflow, to examine the interaction between exchange market pressure and monetary variables, viz. domestic credit (Reserve Money) and interest rate. Evidence from impulse response functions suggests that domestic credit has remained the dominant tool of monetary policy for managing exchange market pressure. The increase in domestic credit upon increase in exchange market pressure (during 1991–98) is imprudent. The result suggests that fiscal needs/growth objective might have dominated the external account considerations during the span. Post 9/11 there is evidence of sterilised intervention in forex market. Interest rate has also weakly served as the tool of monetary policy during the hay days of foreign currency deposits (1991–98). The finding implies that for interest rate to work as tool of monetary policy vis-a-vis exchange market pressure a reasonable degree of capital mobility is called for.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Idrees Khawaja, 2007. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2007:31, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:31
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evan Tanner, 2001. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Asia and Latin America in the 1990s," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 1-2.
    2. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:200-224 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:249-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    6. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    7. Connolly, Michael & Dantas da Silveira, Jose, 1979. "Exchange Market Pressure in Postwar Brazil: An Application of the Girton-Roper Monetary Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 448-454, June.
    8. Flood, Robert P. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2005. "An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 471-484, July.
    9. Mr. Evan C Tanner, 1999. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: Asia and Latin America in the 1990s," IMF Working Papers 1999/114, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Modeste, Nelson C, 1981. "Exchange Market Pressure during the 1970s in Argentina: An Application of the Girton-Roper Monetary Model: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 234-240, May.
    11. Mr. Evan C Tanner, 2002. "Exchange Market Pressure, Currency Crises, and Monetary Policy: Additional Evidence From Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2002/014, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Ahmed Kamaly & Nese Erbil, 2000. "A Var Analysis of Exchange Market Pressure: A Case Study for the MENA Region," Working Papers 2025, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jul 2000.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stavarek, Daniel & Dohnal, Marek, 2009. "Exchange Market Pressure in Central Europe: An Application of the Girton-Roper Model," MPRA Paper 15744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ratnasari, Anggraeni & Widodo, Tri, 2017. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policies in ASEAN5," MPRA Paper 81543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Imran Naveed Khan, 2010. "Exchange Market Pressure Index in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 35, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Foreign Exchange;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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