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Growth During the Time of Covid19

Author

Listed:
  • Renato E. Reside, Jr.

    (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman)

Abstract

This short piece discusses the results of simple regression analysis using cross country data to determine the factors that have influenced fluctuations in real output during the covid-19 pandemic period. Focus is on explaining not only output growth from 2020 to the first half of 2021, but also the length or duration of recessions. The most prominent factors influencing growth include the ability of a country to contain the spread of infections and vaccinate their population. The size of the covid19-induced fiscal stimulus, also matters, especially health care spending. However, the relationship is nonlinear. Beyond a certain point, fiscal spending leads to lower quarterly growth. Policy recommendations are given.

Suggested Citation

  • Renato E. Reside, Jr., 2021. "Growth During the Time of Covid19," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 202108, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202108
    as

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    File URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1544
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; fiscal policy; government expenditures; covid19; crisis management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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