Population and Development Research in the Philippines: A Survey

A review of social science research on population and development in the Philippines reveals that we know more about fertility levels, less on migration and much less so on mortality; and generally, in each of the variables, we know more about trends at the national level than at the sub-national level and among social groups. Studies that examined the impact of rapid population growth at the national level point to the adverse effects of such growth on per capita income, employment, and the provision of basic services such as education and health. However, these did not study the actual consequences of demographic trends, rather these consequences were inferred from the results of simulation exercises using economic demographic models of different specifications. A new generation of consequence studies seem to be needed, namely those that would determine who are the most adversely affected by demographic trends, what are their characteristic, and where are they located. Such information could help formulate policies and programs geared directly towards specific population groups. With respect to the determinants of demographic trends, the studies reviewed suggest potential relationships among demographic variables, e.g., differential migration patterns can have significant impact on nuptiality patterns and therefore on fertility. In addition, the studies reviewed suggest that changes in the values of the non-demographic areas of concern chould have discernible impact on demographic trends: with respect to fertility, through changes in education and health, as well as through female employment via its effects on the age at marriage, with respect to migration, through availability of employment opportunities and access to education services; and finally, with respect to mortality, through improved health and nutrition services and improved environmental sanitation. Hence, policies and programs that affect these areas of concern could have significant impact on the demographic variables. What is not precisely known, however is (a) the quantitative extent and the specific mechanisms through which these policies and programs affect these areas of concern; and (b) through what specific mechanisms and to what quantitative extent do changes in these broad non-demographic areas of concern in turn affect the demographic variables. These types of information are critical in the optimal design of policies and programs that address the non-demographic and demographic objectives.