IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/phd/dpaper/dp_2020-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Projected Disease Transmission, Health System Requirements, and Macroeconomic Impacts of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Abrigo, Michael Ralph M.
  • Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T.
  • Haw, Nel Jason L.
  • Francisco-Abrigo, Kris
  • Uy, Jhanna

Abstract

The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic that has infected at least 1.2 million people and caused more than 67,000 deaths worldwide. The Philippines has recorded 3,764 confirmed cases and 177 deaths as of April 7, 2020 and has implemented an enhanced Luzon-wide enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) from March 17 to April 30 in attempts to limit population movement and curb the spread of the epidemic. Based on the disease transmission model, it is projected that aggressive efforts in the post-ECQ period to isolate at least 70 percent of infectious cases through better contact tracing, social distancing, individual or household isolation, and reduced delays in time to seek care for symptomatic cases are necessary to suppress the outbreak. Otherwise, lifting the ECQ but maintaining current conditions of delayed time to seek care for symptomatic cases merely delays the progression of the outbreak but still results in around 8 percent of the population infected. For all scenarios that do not successfully isolate at least 70 percent of infectious individuals, demands for healthcare resources at the peak of the outbreak, i.e., by August 2020, far exceed available supply in the health sector. The COVID-19 epidemic is expected to affect not only the country’s health system but also the economy. Projections based on a Leontief input-output model suggest that the Philippine economy may lose between 276.3 billion (best case) and PHP 2.5 trillion (worse case) due to COVID-19. The transport, storage, and communication sector, among others, is expected to suffer substantial losses because of expected declines in tourism (PHP 11.7-124.3 billion). Extending the ECQ by one more month may potentially cost the Philippine economy at least PHP 150 billion due to possible declines in household consumption as workers remain unemployed for longer periods. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from date of posting. Email publications@mail.pids.gov.ph.

Suggested Citation

  • Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Ulep, Valerie Gilbert T. & Haw, Nel Jason L. & Francisco-Abrigo, Kris & Uy, Jhanna, 2020. "Projected Disease Transmission, Health System Requirements, and Macroeconomic Impacts of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2020-15, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.pids.gov.ph/publication/discussion-papers/projected-disease-transmission-health-system-requirements-and-macroeconomic-impacts-of-the-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-in-the-philippines
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ocampo, Lanndon & Yamagishi, Kafferine, 2020. "Modeling the lockdown relaxation protocols of the Philippine government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: An intuitionistic fuzzy DEMATEL analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Shinozaki, Shigehiro & Rao, Lakshman N., 2021. "COVID-19 Impact on Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises under the Lockdown: Evidence from a Rapid Survey in the Philippines," ADBI Working Papers 1216, Asian Development Bank Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2020-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aniceto Orbeta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pidgvph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.