IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/phd/dpaper/dp_2012-30.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Implications of Projected Philippine Population Growth, Age Structure Change, and Aging: Using National Transfer Accounts Results

Author

Listed:
  • Salas, J.M. Ian S.
  • Abrigo, Michael Ralph M.
  • Racelis, Rachel H.

Abstract

Philippine population is projected to grow from about 88 million in 2007 to 142 million in 2040. The projected increase in population size will be accompanied by change in the age structure: increase in the percentages of elderly and working-age populations and decrease in the percentage of young population. Increase in population size by itself will drive aggregate consumption and labor income to increase. But this paper also shows that the projected change in the population age distribution will contribute additional increase in both aggregate consumption and labor income. The age structure change can potentially lead to some favorable outcomes: slower increase in aggregate consumption of the young deficit age groups; higher increase in aggregate labor income compared to aggregate consumption overall; and higher proportion of the lifecycle "deficits" that can be covered by "surplus." Still, the projected change in population age structure also presents challenges. One major challenge comes from the projected significant increase in the number of elderly and the fast increase in their aggregate consumption that will consequently follow. The practical challenge would be finding the means to finance this group`s growing consumption in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Implications of Projected Philippine Population Growth, Age Structure Change, and Aging: Using National Transfer Accounts Results," Discussion Papers DP 2012-30, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2012-30
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.pids.gov.ph/publication/discussion-papers/implications-of-projected-philippine-population-growth-age-structure-change-and-aging-using-national-transfer-accounts-results
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rachel H. Racelis & J.M Ian S. Salas, 2007. "Measuring Economic Lifecycle and Flows across Population Age Groups : Data and Methods in the Application of the NTA in the Philippines," Development Economics Working Papers 22682, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Philippines 2007 National Transfer Accounts: Financing Consumption and Lifecycle Deficit by Income Group," Discussion Papers DP 2012-33, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    3. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Philippines 2007 National Transfer Accounts: Consumption, Income, and Intergenerational Reallocation of Resources," Discussion Papers DP 2012-29, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    4. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Philippines 2007 National Transfer Accounts: Consumption, Income, and Intergenerational Reallocation of Resources - Revised Estimates," Discussion Papers DP 2012-35, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    5. repec:phd:pjdevt:pjd_2006_vol._xxxiii_nos._1and2-b is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Arsenio M. Balisacan, 1997. "Growth and Equity in the Philippines," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 199705, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    7. Christopher Edmonds & Manabu Fujimura, 2005. "Relative Economic Decline and Unrealized Demographic Opportunity in the Philippines," Economics Study Area Working Papers 77, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Filipino Elderly Living Arrangements, Work Activity, and Labor Income as Old-age Support," Discussion Papers DP 2012-31, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Herrin, Alejandro N. & Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2015. "Philippines 2011 National Transfer Accounts Estimates of Consumption and Labor Income Age Profiles: Discussions on the 1991-2011 Age Profile Change and Implications on Economic Gains from the First De," Discussion Papers DP 2015-45, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    2. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2014. "Comparing the 1999 and 2007 Philippine NTA Estimates and Examining the Effects of a Definitional Change of Overseas Workers` Remittances," Discussion Papers DP 2014-24, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    3. Racelis, Rachel H. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Herrin, Alejandro N., 2015. "Philippines 2011 National Transfer Accounts Estimates of Consumption and Labor Income Age Profiles: Discussions on the 1991-2011 Age Profile Change and Implications on Economic Gains from the First De," Research Paper Series DP 2015-45, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    4. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Philippines 2007 National Transfer Accounts: Consumption, Labor Income, and Lifecycle Deficit by Income Group," Discussion Papers DP 2012-32, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    5. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Philippines 2007 National Transfer Accounts: Financing Consumption and Lifecycle Deficit by Income Group," Discussion Papers DP 2012-33, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    6. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Filipino Elderly Living Arrangements, Work Activity, and Labor Income as Old-age Support," Discussion Papers DP 2012-31, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    7. Racelis, Rachel H. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Herrin, Alejandro N., 2016. "Consumption, Labor Income, and Lifecycle Deficit by Urban-Rural Residence and by Income Group: Philippines NTA 1991, 1999, and 2011," Research Paper Series DP 2016-31, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    8. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Philippines 2007 National Transfer Accounts: Consumption, Income, and Intergenerational Reallocation of Resources - Revised Estimates," Discussion Papers DP 2012-35, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    9. Herrin, Alejandro N. & Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2016. "Consumption, Labor Income, and Lifecycle Deficit by Urban-Rural Residence and by Income Group: Philippines NTA 1991, 1999, and 2011," Discussion Papers DP 2016-31, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    10. Racelis, Rachel H. & Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Herrin, Alejandro N. & Abrigo, Michael R.M., 2016. "Economic Gain, Age Structure Transition, and Population Groups in the Philippines," Research Paper Series DP 2016-32, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    11. Herrin, Alejandro N. & Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2016. "Economic Gain, Age Structure Transition, and Population Groups in the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2016-32, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    12. Mapa, Dennis S. & Balisacan, Arsenio M. & Corpuz, Jose Rowell T., 2010. "Population Management should be mainstreamed in the Philippine Development Agenda," MPRA Paper 23745, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Salas, J.M. Ian S. & Abrigo, Michael Ralph M. & Racelis, Rachel H., 2012. "Implications of Philippine Trends in Education Financing and Projected Change in School-age Population on Education Expenditures by Income Group: Using National Transfer Accounts Results," Discussion Papers DP 2012-34, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    14. Mello, Michelle Marie & Powlowski, Marcus & Nañagas, Juan M.P. & Bossert, Thomas, 2006. "The role of law in public health: The case of family planning in the Philippines," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 384-396, July.
    15. Yap, Josef T. & Cabalfin, Michael R., 2008. "Sustainable Development Framework for Local Governance," Discussion Papers DP 2008-33, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    16. Arsenio Balisacan, 2000. "Growth, Redistribution And Poverty," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1-2), pages 125-140.
    17. Mapa, Dennis S. & Sandoval, Monica Flerida B, 2011. "The Economic Transition and Growth of Philippine Regions," MPRA Paper 28267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mapa, Dennis S. & Balisacan, Arsenio & Briones, Kristine Joy S. & Albis, Manuel Leonard F., 2009. "What really matters for income growth in the Philippines: Empirical evidence from provincial data," MPRA Paper 19449, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Majah-Leah Ravago & James Roumasset, 2009. "Economic Policy for Sustainable Growth and Development vs. Greedy Growth and Preservationism," Working Papers 200909, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    20. Ernesto M. Pernia, 2014. "Population Management, RH Law, and Inclusivity," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201409, University of the Philippines School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Philippines; National Transfer Accounts; lifecycle deficit; financing consumption; population aging;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2012-30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aniceto Orbeta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pidgvph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.