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History-Dependent Risk Attitude, Second Version

Author

Listed:
  • David Dillenberger

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Kareen Rozen

    (Department of Economics and Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics)

Abstract

We propose a model of history-dependent risk attitude, allowing a decision maker’s risk attitude to be affected by his history of disappointments and elations. The decision maker recursively evaluates compound risks, classifying realizations as disappointing or elating using a threshold rule. We establish equivalence between the model and two cognitive biases: risk attitudes are reinforced by experiences (one is more risk averse after disappointment than after elation) and there is a primacy effect (early outcomes have the greatest impact on risk attitude). In dynamic asset pricing, the model yields volatile, path-dependent prices.

Suggested Citation

  • David Dillenberger & Kareen Rozen, 2011. "History-Dependent Risk Attitude, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 12-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 14 Jul 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:12-029
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    history-dependent risk attitude; reinforcement effect; primacy effect; dynamic reference dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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