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Efectos ‘Spillovers’ (de derrame) del COVID-19 Sobre la Pobreza en el Perú: Un Diseño No Experimental de Control Sintético

Author

Listed:
  • Mario D. Tello

    (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.)

Abstract

Este trabajo estima los efectos derrame o de spillovers asociados al inadecuado comportamiento de las personas (debido al incumplimiento del confinamiento laboral y de la protección en salud) sobre la pobreza monetaria del Perú en el período COVID-19 entre el trimestre 2020.II al trimestre 2021.IV. Para ello usa un diseño no experimental de Control Sintético con Spillovers desarrollado por Cao & Dowd (2022). Estos efectos son medidos para 59 provincias, denominadas de tratamiento por tener una tasa de contagiados por COVID-19 mayor al 1%, y 31 provincias denominadas de control con tasas de contagiados por COVID-19 menores o iguales al 1%. De las estimaciones se obtiene que diecisiete provincias tratadas tuvieron efectos spillovers estadísticamente significativos en por lo menos un criterio de las 9 fuentes de spillovers. En promedio para las 17 provincias, cerca del 33% del incremento de la pobreza en el periodo COVID-19 se explica por los efectos spillovers asociados al inadecuado comportamiento de las personas. JEL Classification-JE: I9, K32.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario D. Tello, 2023. "Efectos ‘Spillovers’ (de derrame) del COVID-19 Sobre la Pobreza en el Perú: Un Diseño No Experimental de Control Sintético," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2023-518, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00518
    DOI: 10.18800/2079-8474.0518
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Derrames; Pobreza monetaria.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K32 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Energy, Environmental, Health, and Safety Law

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