Efectos de la crisis económica y financiera internacional, de 1997 a 1999, en la balanza de pagos del Perú

Previous introduction to the preceding events and evolution of the international crisis, from 1997 to 1999, and to the comparative analysis of stock markets’ volatility and exchange devaluations that went on along with it. This working document tries to approximately evaluate the recent effects of this crisis on the Peruvian balance of payments’ accounts; roughly separating the probable effects of ‘del Niño’ phenomenon (from 1997 to 1998) on the external sector, in order to find out a more approximate direct effect of this serious external crisis on the commercial and financial flows of the Peruvian economy, separating them into autonomous and balancing transactions of the balance of payments. This recent cycle of unfavorable external shocks has occurred in a more global world’s economy and, therefore, this time their effects have been more extensive and volatile than on similar occasions decades ago. Also, on this opportunity, the internal conditions of the Peruvian economy were somewhat different from those prevailing previously: the domestic economy was more dollarized than before; certain fiscal and monetary stability, and a relatively low inflation were achieved; besides, the country had net foreign reserves enough for any emergency. However, the government minimized the seriousness of the external crisis and it didn’t carry out anticyclical measures immediately; none complete package of appropriate economic measures (fiscal and monetary) were taken to counteract the unfavorable effects of the serious external and domestic situation. Few macroeconomic measures were applied with delay and partially, prioritizing a neutral or restrictive monetary policy and leaving aside, to a large extent, fiscal policy.