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Trade Misinvoicing and Macroeconomic Outcomes in India

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  • Raghbendra Jha
  • Duc Nguyen Truong

Abstract

This paper has two main objectives. First, it computes capital flight (CF) through trade misinvoicing from India using data from UNCOMTRADE, MIT Observatory of Economic Complexity and IMF E-library. India's trade with 17 countries over the period 1988-2012 is considered. We find that CF has accelerated since 2004 and particularly sharply since 2007. It peaked at nearly $40 billion in 2008 with the total outflow between 1988-2012 exceeding $186 billion. Second, we model the mutual dependence of GDP growth, CF, and various risk factors in a VAR framework. We find that the VAR models chosen fit the data well. We conduct impulse response function analysis, forecast the key variables until 2020 and forecast error variance decomposition. Broadly we find that, if left undisturbed, CF through trade misinvoicing will continue to be high and play a significant macroeconomic role. Thus, CF needs to be checked urgently not only because it is a drain of the country's resources but also because it continues to have a significant and, by its very nature, uncontrollable effect on the economy. At least some of the failures of current macroeconomic policy in India could be attributed to CF.

Suggested Citation

  • Raghbendra Jha & Duc Nguyen Truong, 2014. "Trade Misinvoicing and Macroeconomic Outcomes in India," ASARC Working Papers 2014-02, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:pas:asarcc:2014-02
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    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/acde/asarc/pdf/papers/2014/WP2014_02.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. (ed.), 1991. "Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283393.
    2. מחקר - ביטוח לאומי, 2006. "Summary for 2005," Working Papers 29, National Insurance Institute of Israel.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qureshi, Tehseen Ahmed & Mahmood, Zafar, 2015. "The Size of Trade Misinvoicing in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 65801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tehseen Ahmed Qureshi & Zafar Mahmood, 2016. "The Magnitude of Trade Misinvoicing and Resulting Revenue Loss in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 21(2), pages 1-30, July-Dec.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade Misinvocing; VAR; Impulse Response; Forecasting; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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