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Towards a Measure of Financial Fragility

Author

Listed:
  • Dimitrios P Tsomocos
  • Oriol Aspachs
  • London School of Economics
  • Charles A.E. Goodhart
  • London School of Economics
  • Lea Zicchino
  • Bank of England

Abstract

This paper proposes a measure of financial fragility that is based on economic welfare in a general equilibrium model calibrated against UK data. The model comprises a household sector, three active heterogeneous banks, a central bank/regulator, incomplete markets, and endogenous default. We address the impact of monetary and regulatory policy, credit and capital shocks in the real and financial sectors and how the response of the economy to shocks relates to our measure of financial fragility. Finally we use panel VAR techniques to investigate the relationships between the factors that characterise financial fragility in our model, i.e. banks` probabilities of default and banks` profits - to a proxy of welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios P Tsomocos & Oriol Aspachs & London School of Economics & Charles A.E. Goodhart & London School of Economics & Lea Zicchino & Bank of England, 2006. "Towards a Measure of Financial Fragility," Economics Series Working Papers 2006-FE-04, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:2006-fe-04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles A.E. Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, 2005. "A risk assessment model for banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 197-224, September.
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    8. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-21, January.
    9. Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Lea Zicchino, 2012. "On Modelling Endogenous Default," Chapters, in: The Challenge of Financial Stability, chapter 6, pages 134-152, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking, contagion and financial fragility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24826, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    12. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Sunirand, Pojanart & Tsomocos, Dimitrios P., 2004. "A model to analyse financial fragility: applications," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-30, September.
    13. Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano & Boris Hofmann, 2006. "Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2006/223, International Monetary Fund.
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    16. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2005. "The Phillips Curve, the IS Curve and Monetary Transmission: Evidence for the US and the Euro Area," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 51(4), pages 757-775.
    17. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    3. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
    4. Goodhart, C.A.E. & Sunirand, P. & Tsomocos, D.P., 2011. "The optimal monetary instrument for prudential purposes," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 70-77, June.
    5. Patro, Dilip K. & Qi, Min & Sun, Xian, 2013. "A simple indicator of systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 105-116.
    6. Volkova, Olga (Волкова, Ольга) & Lvova, Irina (Львова, Ирина), 2016. "The bank's rating, the rating agencies, Basel II of, financial indicator, the econometric model [Влияние Финансовых Показателей На Международные Рейтинги Российских Банков]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 177-195, February.
    7. Jokipii, Terhi & Monnin, Pierre, 2013. "The impact of banking sector stability on the real economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-16.
    8. Maria Kasselaki & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2014. "Financial soundness indicators and financial crisis episodes," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 623-669, November.
    9. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Molterer, Manuel, 2019. "Tougher than the rest? The resilience of specialized financial intermediation to macroeconomic shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 163-174.
    11. Eric Tymoigne, 2010. "Detecting Ponzi Finance: An Evolutionary Approach to the Measure of Financial Fragility," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_605, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Hayakawa, Kazuhiko, 2016. "Improved GMM estimation of panel VAR models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 240-264.
    13. Eric Tymoigne, 2014. "Measuring macroprudential risk through financial fragility: a Minskian approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 719-744.
    14. Kanas, Angelos, 2014. "Default risk and equity prices in the U.S. banking sector: Regime switching effects of regulatory changes," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 244-258.
    15. Zineddine Alla & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Qiaoluan H. Li & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2018. "Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses," IMF Working Papers 2018/049, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Samitas, Aristeidis & Polyzos, Stathis, 2016. "Freeing Greece from capital controls: Were the restrictions enforced in time?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 196-213.
    17. Susan Schroeder, 2009. "Defining and detecting financial fragility: New Zealand's experience," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(3), pages 287-307, February.
    18. Castrén, Olli & Dées, Stéphane & Zaher, Fadi, 2010. "Stress-testing euro area corporate default probabilities using a global macroeconomic model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 64-78, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial fragility; Banks; Regulatory policy; Monetary policy; Equilibrium analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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