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Zero-Sum Thinking, the Evolution of Effort Suppressing Beliefs, and Economic Development

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  • Jean-Paul Carvalho
  • Augustin Bergeron
  • Joseph Henrich
  • Nathan Nun
  • Jonathan Weigel

Abstract

We study the evolution of belief systems that suppress productive effort. These include concerns about the envy of others, beliefs in the importance of luck for success, disdain for competitive effort, and traditional beliefs in witchcraft. We show that such demotivating beliefs can evolve when interactions are zero-sum in nature, i.e., gains for one individual tend to come at the expense of others. Within a population, our model predicts a divergence between material and subjective payoffs, with material welfare being hump-shaped and subjective well-being being decreasing in demotivating beliefs. Across societies, our model predicts a positive relationship between zero-sum thinking and demotivating beliefs and a negative relationship between zero-sum thinking (or demotivating beliefs) and both material welfare and subjective well-being. We test the model’s predictions using data from two samples in the Democratic Republic of Congo and from the World Values Survey. In the DRC, we find a positive relationship between zero-sum thinking and the presence of demotivating beliefs, such as concerns about envy and beliefs in witchcraft. Globally, zero-sum thinking is associated with skepticism about the importance of hard work for success, lower income, less educational attainment, less financial security, and lower life satisfaction. Comparing individuals in the same zero-sum environment, we observe the divergence between material outcomes and subjective well-being predicted by our model.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Paul Carvalho & Augustin Bergeron & Joseph Henrich & Nathan Nun & Jonathan Weigel, 2023. "Zero-Sum Thinking, the Evolution of Effort Suppressing Beliefs, and Economic Development," Economics Series Working Papers 1024, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1024
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Kelly J. & Stutzer, Alois, 2024. "The Role of Social Mobility Experience in Zero-Sum Beliefs," IZA Discussion Papers 17407, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Giampaolo Bonomi, 2024. "Divide and Diverge: Polarization Incentives," Papers 2405.20564, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    3. Leopoldo Fergusson & José-Alberto Guerra & James A. Robinson, 2024. "Anti-social norms," NBER Working Papers 32717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Fergusson, Leopoldo & Guerra, José-Alberto & Robinson, James A., 2024. "Anti-social norms," Documentos CEDE 21159, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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