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The Volatility Curse and Financial Development: Revisiting the paradox of plenty

Author

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  • Rick Van der Ploeg
  • Steven Poelhekke

Abstract

The volatility of unanticipated output growth in income per capita is detrimental to long-run development, controlling for initial income per capita, population growth, human capital, investment, openness and natural resource dependence. This effect is significant and robust over a wide range of specifications. We unravel the effects of volatility by opening the black box and conditioning the variance of growth shocks on several country characteristics. Natural resource dependence, physical and institutional barriers to trade and associated policy shocks increase volatility sharply and harm growth through this indirect channel. The robust indirect effect of natural resources through volatility trumps any direct effects on economic development, even if natural resource dependence is measured net of extraction costs. Financial development appears to mitigate the harmful causes of volatility. Our panel data estimation confirms our cross-country results, but we also offer evidence that well developed financial systems amplify the effect of short-term terms-of-trade volatility on macroeconomic volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Rick Van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "The Volatility Curse and Financial Development: Revisiting the paradox of plenty," OxCarre Working Papers 024, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:024
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Beck, Thorsten & Poelhekke, Steven, 2023. "Follow the money: Does the financial sector intermediate natural resource windfalls?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Balavac, Merima & Pugh, Geoff, 2016. "The link between trade openness, export diversification, institutions and output volatility in transition countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 273-287.
    3. Andersen, Jørgen Juel, 2011. "The form of government and fiscal dynamics," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 297-310, June.
    4. Joya, Omar, 2015. "Growth and volatility in resource-rich countries: Does diversification help?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 38-55.
    5. Hailu, Degol & Kipgen, Chinpihoi, 2017. "The Extractives Dependence Index (EDI)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 251-264.
    6. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2015. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," The Energy Journal, , vol. 36(2), pages 117-144, April.
    7. Kim, Yeong Jae & Cho, Seong-Hoon, 2023. "Is the discovery of oil a blessing or curse in the era of climate change?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    8. Boniface Ngah Epo & Dief Reagen Nochi Faha, 2020. "Natural Resources, Institutional Quality, and Economic Growth: an African Tale," Post-Print halshs-02157588, HAL.
    9. Thorsten Beck & Steven Poelhekke, 2017. "Follow the money: Does the Financial Sector Intermediate Natural Resource Windfalls?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-027/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Boniface Ngah Epo & Dief Reagen Nochi Faha, 2020. "Natural Resources, Institutional Quality, and Economic Growth: an African Tale," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(1), pages 99-128, January.
    12. Kurronen, Sanna, 2012. "Financial sector in resource-dependent economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    13. Sam Hak Kan Tang, 2018. "Does Scientific And Technical Research Reduce Macroeconomic Volatility?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(1), pages 68-88, January.
    14. Kurronen, Sanna, 2012. "Financial sector in resource-dependent economies," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    15. Kurronen, Sanna, 2015. "Financial sector in resource-dependent economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 208-229.
    16. Baena, César & Sévi, Benoît & Warrack, Allan, 2012. "Funds from non-renewable energy resources: Policy lessons from Alaska and Alberta," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 569-577.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    volatility; growth; natural resource curse; financial development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development

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