The Three Eras of Global Inequality, 1820–2020, with the Focus on the Past Thirty Years

The paper reestimates global inequality between 1820 and 1980, reappraises the results up to 2013, and presents new inequality estimates for 2018. It shows that historically, global inequality has followed three eras: the first, from 1820 until 1950, characterized by rising between country income differences and increasing within-country inequalities; the second, from 1950 to the last decade of the 20th century, with very high global and between-country inequality; and the current one of decreasing inequality thanks to the rise of Asian incomes, and especially so Chinese. The present era has seen the emergence of the global “median” class, reduced population-weighted gaps between nations, and the greatest reshuffling in income positions between the West and China since the Industrial Revolution. Whether global inequality will continue on its downward trend depends now much more on changes in India and large African countries than on China. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)