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Why did the Thirteen Keys to the White House fail? An analysis of Government Structuralism and Political Anomalies

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  • Panarello, Christian

Abstract

Lichtman's Thirteen Keys Model has, after ten elections of success, succumbed to its first failure in Donald Trump's first victory in both the popular vote and electoral college measures. For his protection of the Keys, he has cited mass misinformation (as he suggests is produced by Elon Musk's ownership of Twitter/X) and right-wing podcasters’ assumedly uncritical support of the presidential nominee. However, this hypothesis appears arbitrary, especially relative to recent elections where the Keys have been successful. This article instead postulates a Structuralist argument – functioning to describe innate administrative normativities (the structure of government as described by its electoral and legislative composition) – which hinges on the consistency that Lichtman interpreted (particularly in his introductory work with Keilis-Borok) in showing the Keys to be a consistent model; the Keys are further shown to be unswayed by projected collective social proclivities.

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  • Panarello, Christian, 2024. "Why did the Thirteen Keys to the White House fail? An analysis of Government Structuralism and Political Anomalies," SocArXiv v2kxm_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:v2kxm_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/v2kxm_v1
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