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Political and Social Correlates of Covid-19 Mortality

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  • Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel

    (WZB Berlin Social Science Center)

  • Hilbig, Hanno

    (Princeton University)

  • Humphreys, Macartan
  • KC, Sampada
  • Lieber, Nils
  • Scacco, Alexandra

    (WZB Berlin Social Science Center)

Abstract

What political and social features of states help explain the distribution of reported Covid-19 deaths? We survey existing works on (1) state capacity, (2) political institutions, (3) political priorities, and (4) social structures to identify national-level political and social characteristics that may help explain variation in the ability of societies to limit Covid-19 mortality. Accounting for a simple set of Lasso-chosen controls, we find that measures of interpersonal and institutional trust are persistently associated with reported Covid-19 deaths in theory-consistent directions. Beyond this, however, patterns are poorly predicted by existing theories, and by arguments in the popular press focused on populist governments, women-led governments, and pandemic preparedness. Expert predictions of mortality patterns associated with state capacity, democracy, and inequality, do no better than chance. Overall, our analysis highlights the challenges our discipline's theories face in accounting for political responses to unanticipated, society-wide crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel & Hilbig, Hanno & Humphreys, Macartan & KC, Sampada & Lieber, Nils & Scacco, Alexandra, 2020. "Political and Social Correlates of Covid-19 Mortality," SocArXiv ub3zd_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:ub3zd_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ub3zd_v1
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