Ethnic and regional inequalities in the Russian military fatalities in Ukraine: Preliminary findings from crowdsourced data

Objectives: This paper investigates ethnic and regional disparities in fatality rates in the Russian military during the 2022-23 war in Ukraine. Methods: The analysis uses a new crowdsourced data set comprising the names of over 20,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine between February 2022 and April 2023. This data set was compiled by a team of volunteers who gathered information from social media and other accessible sources. The data set is incomplete and therefore the findings reported in this paper are tentative. Mortality rates and relative risks are estimated by ethnic group and region, and a linear model is fitted to assess correlations between population ethnic composition, socio-economic factors, and regional fatality rates. Results: The study reveals significant disparities in military fatality rates across Russian regions, with the highest mortality observed among soldiers originating from economically disadvantaged areas in Siberia and the Russian Far East, and the lowest from Moscow and St.Petersburg. Buryats and Tuvans are overrepresented among the fatalities relative to their population share. However, when regional socio-economic disparities are accounted for, ethnic differences in mortality rates are considerably reduced. Conclusions: The observed regional and ethnic fatality disparities appear to be driven by socio-economic inequalities between regions. Contribution: This paper evaluates social inequalities in fatalities in the Russian military in Ukraine and compares these findings with the research on US military casualties.