Even In Ancient Roman Egypt, Urban Women had Lower Fertility than Rural Women

Historical estimates of the total fertility rate (TFR) are relatively uncommon, owing to the onerous data requirements for direct calculation and the lack of digitized records. Recent advancements in indirect fertility estimation 1 allow for estimation of TFR using data as minimal as a population pyramid – relatively common data in historical contexts through census records and population registers. Here we use published data on the age structure of Roman Egypt circa AD 12 to AD 259 2 to estimate TFR and 90%ile credible interval in an ancient time period and place using a Bayesian approach. Furthermore, the population data is separated by urban and rural areas, allowing for an unprecedented glimpse into ancient fertility levels. We find that ancient Roman Egyptian women in urban areas had considerably lower fertility than women in rural areas -- urban TFR: 3.37 [2.26 – 4.55], and rural TFR: 8.57 [6.01 – 11.25]. Our findings suggest that the modern day urban/rural fertility differential dates back nearly 2000 years. As demonstrated here, the advancements in indirect estimation could be deployed to better understand historical and ancient fertility regimes, shedding light on societies far before the existence of modern vital statistics systems.