The Opinion Dynamics of Public Risk Perceptions & Policy Attitudes Toward Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)

Background. A highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza (H5N1, or “bird flu”) began circulating across poultry farms worldwide in 2020. While the virus has been transmitted to mammals and humans in the past, media attention to the potential impact of H5N1 on human health following the documentation of unprecedented transmission between mammals in Spring 2024; including the prevalence of H5N1 in the commercial dairy supply. Objective. To quantify (a) the prevalence and (b) socio-political correlates (e.g., partisan identity, attitudes toward scientific expertise) of public concern about H5N1, as well as support for policy action aimed at reducing its potential risks to human health. Method. In a nationally representative longitudinal survey of N = 831 US adults, we asked respondents to answer a series of questions about the levels of concern about H5N1 transmission to humans, beliefs about the safety of consuming unpasteurized milk products, and support for government interventions aimed at reducing the public health risks posed by avian influenza outbreaks. Results. We find that a small minority of Americans express concern about the public health risks of H5N1, or reject misinformation about the safety of raw milk consumption. Low levels of concern and raw milk misinformation are in turn associated with opposition to policies aimed at reducing the public health risks borne by H5N1, as is both anti-intellectual attitude endorsement and partisan identification with the Republican Party. Conclusions. Public apathy about the public health risks borne by avian flu – and corresponding indifferences toward mitigating policy action – could undermine US pandemic preparedness. Lacking clear signals from the public to take action to address this important issue, policymakers may be reluctant to pursue policies that reduce avian influenza’s pandemic potential.