Urban food markets and the COVID-19 lockdown in India

On March 24, 2020, the Government of India announced a 21-day national lockdown that has since been extended to May 31, 2020. The lockdown left urban food markets in disarray with severe supply bottlenecks and restrictions on doing business. At a time when food prices in India were declining consistently, supply disruptions consequent to the lockdown have reversed the trend on average. Based on an analysis of publicly available data on wholesale and retail prices for 22 commodities from 114 Centers, we find that prices have increased since the lockdown, as of August 1, 2020. There is significant diversity across commodities and geographies that mask aggregate figures. Average price increases were to the tune of over 6% for several pulses, over 3.5% for most edible oils, 15% for potato 28% for tomato in the four weeks post-lockdown compared to prices during the four weeks preceding the lockdown. Price of meat and fish too have registered large increases. Price wedge between retail and wholesale prices increased as did spatial dispersion, both signifying friction in supply chains. We find that smaller cities have seen a much higher increase in prices with some seeing a rise in retail food prices by as much as 20%. Three rounds of surveys, conducted between April and July, of food retailers in 14 Indian cities reveal serious operational challenges. These include, among others, transport and labor shortages, police harassment and social discrimination. At the same time, several innovative arrangements and adaptations have evolved as well suggesting resilience. The paper reviews these aspects and outlines some lessons for food policy in emerging economies.