A degrowth scenario for biodiversity? Some methodological avenues and a call for collaboration

Economic growth contributes to biodiversity loss and does not necessarily contribute to wellbeing. Thus, when developing biodiversity scenarios, we should explore societal futures where economic growth is not a pre-condition. However, it is not clear how and by whom a degrowth scenario for biodiversity could be developed. This is so because there are different approaches to develop scenarios (some of them nascent) and because degrowth is only loosely connected to biodiversity questions. In this perspective paper we explain how the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) could be used to generate a degrowth scenario for biodiversity, Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) and Good Quality of Life (GQL) based on multiple societal values. We present key methodological avenues of such an endeavour, including: (i) generating degrowth visions for biodiversity, NCP and GQL; (ii) identifying the leverage points and characterizing the transition; (iii) identifying relevant social-ecological feedbacks and selecting indicators; and (iv) modelling biodiversity, NCP and GQL along a degrowth transition. We frame our proposal in current efforts to improve scenario development across the biodiversity and climate communities. We end with a call for collaboration between natural and social sciences, quantitative and qualitative approaches, and northern and southern perspectives. This collaboration could lead to a community of practice that tests and improves the scenario in national and international science-policy interfaces.