HUMAN GAINS AND LOSSES FROM GLOBAL WARMING: Satisfaction with the Climate in the USA, Winter and Summer, North and South

The scientific understanding of the causes of global warming is based on a vast body of rigorous, peer-reviewed research but there is not nearly as much systematic empirical evidence on consequences for humans. Using direct questions about satisfaction with winter and summer weather, we show that warming's effects can be reliably estimated from survey data and have a major impact on subjective well-being. Combining a US national survey (N=2295) and standard National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data on actual month-by-month temperatures at each location, we find that changes to be expected from the widely discussed, allegedly "dangerous" two degrees Celsius of global warming are both familiar and small. They are equivalent to moving from Wisconsin to Michigan, or Virginia to North Carolina, or more generally 180 miles south. Such warming will greatly increase Americans' satisfaction with winter weather, especially in the north, and somewhat decrease satisfaction with summer weather in both north and south. On balance the nation benefits slightly. Regional differences are large, with northerners' gains roughly equivalent to a 4% to 6% increase in their GDP, while southerners losses are about the same. These changes are important, in and of themselves about as large as the combined financial implications of all other aspects of global warming. They have important policy implications, suggesting that prompt action to reduce carbon emissions may not be optimal as that would restrict warming both in the summer and in the south (gains) but also in the winter and in the north (losses).