Bamboo in a Storm: The Russia-Ukraine War and Vietnam's Foreign Policy (2022 - 2024)

This article examines how Vietnam has responded to the Russia-Ukraine war, how the war has impacted Vietnam’s foreign policy, and why Hanoi has behaved the way it has. It is organized into three major sections. The first discusses the impact of the Ukraine war on Vietnam’s strategic environment and grand strategy. It also outlines the broad contour of Vietnam’s grand strategy and identifies major possible directions along which Hanoi may steer its course in the future. The second section examines Russia’s unique role in Vietnam’s strategic calculus and Russian soft power in Vietnam. It also discusses the pre-war developments that strengthened Russia’s role and soft power, thus providing a larger context without which Vietnam’s responses to the war cannot be fully understood. The third section documents Vietnam’s domestic and foreign policy responses to the war. The article argues that although the Russia-Ukraine war has triggered diverse, even opposing, responses from Vietnam’s ruling elite, it has not changed the general direction of Vietnam’s foreign policy because it has not directly and fundamentally affected Vietnam’s quest for security, resources, and identity. However, the war posed moral and strategic dilemmas for Hanoi, tore the web of geopolitical partnerships upon which Vietnam relied to secure its place in the world, and threatened to shake Russia’s unique and critical role in Vietnam’s foreign relations. Hanoi responded by reinforcing the current paradigm of its foreign policy, performing a delicate balancing act between the great powers, and deepening ties with the major powerhouses in its surrounding region. In the long term, however, the costs of this “bamboo diplomacy” may outweigh its benefits.