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What factors protected forests in the Brazilian Amazon and Indonesia? A Delphi study

Author

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  • Lyons-White, Joss

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Spencer, Matthew
  • Arif, Joko
  • Balmford, Andrew
  • Barlow, Jos
  • Brandão, Joyce
  • Börner, Jan
  • Camara, Gilberto

    (INPE - Brazilian National Institute for Space Research)

  • Chandra, Adelina

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Cleary, David

Abstract

What factors have been most important for protecting the two-thirds of tropical forests that remain standing? Qualitative factors like politics and governance are challenging to assess using existing statistical methods. To address this gap, we conducted a Delphi study with 36 experts to identify factors that contributed to forest protection in the Brazilian Amazon and Indonesia. Our results unpacked the complex dynamics affecting forest protection in both regions and highlighted the importance of political will, advocacy by civil society, and intergovernmental diplomacy, as well as shifts in factors' importance over time. Our analysis in Brazil emphasised the central importance of the state, while our findings in Indonesia revealed a complex and evolving mix of public, private and civil society factors. These results shed new light on the critical intersections of international advocacy and local policy contexts to generate enabling conditions for conservation.

Suggested Citation

  • Lyons-White, Joss & Spencer, Matthew & Arif, Joko & Balmford, Andrew & Barlow, Jos & Brandão, Joyce & Börner, Jan & Camara, Gilberto & Chandra, Adelina & Cleary, David, 2025. "What factors protected forests in the Brazilian Amazon and Indonesia? A Delphi study," SocArXiv bpgsm_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:bpgsm_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/bpgsm_v1
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