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Estimating the effect of crime (maps) on house prices using a (un)natural experiment

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  • Zhang, Meng Le

    (University of Sheffield)

  • Adepeju, Monsuru
  • Thomas, Rhiannon

Abstract

Crime may affect house prices through mediating causal pathways--such as the destruction of property or victimisation of locals. One mediating pathway is the 'signalling' effect of crime which may decrease house prices in high crime areas due to a perception of increased victimisation or other factors like undesirable neighbours. The public may form their opinions about crime from several sources, from word of mouth to official statistics. Since 2011, online public crime maps have published monthly crime figures at almost street-level resolution (Sampson and Kinnear 2010; see https://www.police.uk/pu/your-area/). At its launch in February 2011, the crime map website (henceforth referred to by its domain name police.uk) received over 18 million visits an hour which caused the website to crash repeatedly (Travis and Mulholland 2011). This project will estimate the signalling effects of crime maps on house prices using a natural experiment that leverages intentional errors in public information -- caused by data anonymisation techniques -- as a source of variation. The aim of this pre-registration is to specify the research plan in ahead of data collection/ access.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Meng Le & Adepeju, Monsuru & Thomas, Rhiannon, 2022. "Estimating the effect of crime (maps) on house prices using a (un)natural experiment," SocArXiv 9zupw, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:9zupw
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/9zupw
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nils Braakmann, 2017. "The link between crime risk and property prices in England and Wales: Evidence from street-level data," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(8), pages 1990-2007, June.
    2. Steve Gibbons, 2004. "The Costs of Urban Property Crime," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(499), pages 441-463, November.
    3. Pinchbeck, Edward W. & Roth, Sefi & Szumilo, Nikodem & Vanino, Enrico, 2020. "The Price of Indoor Air Pollution: Evidence from Radon Maps and the Housing Market," IZA Discussion Papers 13655, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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