Demand-responsive research support to the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office during the 2023 Nigerian elections: an evaluation using outcome harvesting

Background: Various parts of the public sector in the UK and elsewhere benefit from access to demand-responsive research services designed to aid decision-making. Before and during the Nigerian elections in 2023, staff at the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) received such support. This was designed to help staff navigate a wide range of fast-moving issues and unprecedent events surrounding the election, such as disruption of traditional election dynamics. Objectives: This evaluation aims to identify the outcomes of demand-responsive research support prior to and during the 2023 elections. It explores the sustainability of identified outcomes as well as the factors that enabled or constrained effectiveness. Methods: This evaluation uses an adapted outcome harvesting approach. Key project documents are reviewed, and semi-structured interviews are conducted with nine project stakeholders. Interviewed stakeholders include both users of the research and stakeholders who contributed to the design or delivery of the intervention. An analytical framework grounded in behavioural science is used to organise findings. Results: The study identifies several instances in which the research informed FCDO thinking and decision-making around the elections, including in areas such as communications and security planning. The research team’s responsiveness, their expertise and perceived independence enabled positive outcomes. Regular engagement between research producers and research users was another important enabler. Outcomes were largely short-term, however, and effects may have been greater had support been provided earlier in FCDO’s planning processes. Conclusions: The evaluation suggests that demand-responsive research can inform public sector decision-making even in fast-moving contexts. Sustained changes in research use are only likely to occur when explicitly targeted by the intervention. The depth and diversity of research teams’ expertise, their willingness to engage in genuine co-design and discussion with research users and the timeliness of outputs are important moderators of effectiveness.