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The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement

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  • Prem, Mounu
  • Vargas, Juan F.
  • Mejía, Daniel

Abstract

Policies based on prohibition and repression to fight the war on drugs have largely failed in a variety of contexts. However, incentive-based policies may also fail and have unintended negative consequences if policymakers do not properly anticipate behavioral reactions. This is a particularly important concern in the case of policies announced prior to their implementation. In this paper, we show that a naive and untimely policy announcement generated an unprecedented escalation in cocaine production in Colombia, offsetting almost 20 years and billions of dollars of U.S.-backed efforts to stop drug production and cartel action.

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  • Prem, Mounu & Vargas, Juan F. & Mejía, Daniel, 2020. "The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement," SocArXiv 6gmpd_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:6gmpd_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/6gmpd_v1
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