A Longitudinal Typology of Neighbourhood-level Social Fragmentation: A Finite Mixture Model Approach

Neighbourhoods are social enclaves. And, from an epidemiological vantage there is substantive research examining how social traits of neighbourhoods affect health. However, this research has often focused on the effects of social deprivation. Less attention has been given to social fragmentation (SF), a construct aligned with the notions of lesser: social cohesion, social capital, collective functioning, and social isolation. Concurrently, there has been limited research that has described the spatial and temporal patterning of neighbourhood-level social traits. With a focus on SF the main aims of this paper were to model and describe the time-varying and spatial nature of SF. Conceptually, this research was informed by ‘thinking in time’ and by the ‘lifecourse-of-place’ perspective. While, from an analytical perspective, a longitudinal (3-time points over 10-years) neighbourhood database was created for the metropolitan region of Adelaide, Australia. Latent Transition Analysis was then used to model the developmental profile of SF where neighbourhoods were proxied by ‘suburbs’, and the measurement model for SF was formed of 9-conceptually related census-based indicators. A four-class, nominal-level latent status model of SF was identified: class-A=low SF; class-B=mixed-level SF/inner urban; class-C=mixed-level SF/peri-urban; and class-D=high SF. Class-A and -D neighbourhoods were the most prevalent at all time points. And, while certain neighbourhoods were inferred to have changed their SF class across time, most neighbourhoods were characterised by intransience.