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Words can hurt: how political communication can change the pace of an epidemic

Author

Listed:
  • Gagete-Miranda, Jessica
  • Mariani, Lucas Argentieri
  • Rettl, Paula

    (Bocconi University)

Abstract

Do cues from political elites influence their constituents’ decisions about personal matters, such as health behavior? If so, why? Leveraging on a combination of natural and survey experiments, we study how President Bolsonaro’s dismissive stance towards COVID-19 in Brazil influenced the behaviors and o pinions o f his opponents and supporters. First, we exploit Bolsonaro’s sudden display of skepticism towards COVID-19 in a differences-in-differences design. We show that municipalities with a concentration of his supporters witnessed higher mobility levels, excess hospitalization, and mortality in subsequent days. Second, results of two survey experiments indicate that these pat- terns are explained by Bolsonaro supporters following his cues and a backlash among his opponents. Heterogeneous exercises regarding participants’ performance in a cognitive test and the strength of their political social identity provide evidence of the mechanisms. While heuristics drive the reaction of Bolsonaro opponents, willingness to comply with group norms explains the reactions of his supporters.

Suggested Citation

  • Gagete-Miranda, Jessica & Mariani, Lucas Argentieri & Rettl, Paula, 2020. "Words can hurt: how political communication can change the pace of an epidemic," OSF Preprints ps2wx_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ps2wx_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ps2wx_v1
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