Operationalizing cultural adaptation to climate change: contemporary examples from United States agriculture

It has been proposed that climate adaptation research can benefit from an evolutionary approach. But related empirical research is lacking. We advance the evolutionary study of climate adaptation with two case studies from contemporary United States agriculture. First, we define ‘cultural adaptation to climate change’ as a mechanistic process of population-level cultural change. We argue this definition enables rigorous comparisons, yields testable hypotheses from mathematical theory, and distinguishes adaptive change, non-adaptive change, and desirable policy outcomes. Next, we develop an operational approach to identify ‘cultural adaptation to climate change’ based on established empirical criteria. We apply this approach to USDA data on crop choices and the use of cover crops between 2008 and 2021. We find evidence that crop choices are adapting to local trends in two separate climate variables in some regions of the US. But evidence suggests that cover cropping may be adapting more to economic incentives than climatic conditions. Further research is needed to characterize the process of cultural adaptation, particularly the routes and mechanisms of cultural transmission. Furthermore, climate adaptation policy could benefit from research on factors that differentiate regions exhibiting adaptive trends in crop choice from those that do not.