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Strengths and weaknesses of the logistic function used in forecasting

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  • MODIS, THEODORE

Abstract

This work describes strengths and weaknesses of the logistic function used in forecasting from a theoretical and a practical point of view. Theoretical topics treated are: generalizing the concept of competition, dividing the growth cycle in four "seasons", and using logistics simply qualitatively to obtain rare insights and intuitive understanding. Practical topics addresses are: determination of the uncertainties, how to decide whether to fit cumulative or per unit of time data, and how to deal with a bias toward a low ceiling. This article is my contribution to a massive review article with title "Forecasting: theory and practice" published in the International Journal of Forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Modis, Theodore, 2022. "Strengths and weaknesses of the logistic function used in forecasting," OSF Preprints mrwu3, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:mrwu3
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/mrwu3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Modis, Theodore, 1992. "Chaoslike states can be expected before and after logistic growth," OSF Preprints z6yf7, Center for Open Science.
    2. Debecker, Alain & Modis, Theodore, 2021. "Poorly known aspects of flattening the curve of COVID-19," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    3. Modis, Theodore, 2007. "The normal, the natural, and the harmonic," OSF Preprints 84tgs, Center for Open Science.
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