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Strengths and weaknesses of the logistic function used in forecasting

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  • MODIS, THEODORE

Abstract

This work describes strengths and weaknesses of the logistic function used in forecasting from a theoretical and a practical point of view. Theoretical topics treated are: generalizing the concept of competition, dividing the growth cycle in four "seasons", and using logistics simply qualitatively to obtain rare insights and intuitive understanding. Practical topics addresses are: determination of the uncertainties, how to decide whether to fit cumulative or per unit of time data, and how to deal with a bias toward a low ceiling. This article is my contribution to a massive review article with title "Forecasting: theory and practice" published in the International Journal of Forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Modis, Theodore, 2022. "Strengths and weaknesses of the logistic function used in forecasting," OSF Preprints mrwu3, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:mrwu3
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/mrwu3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Debecker, Alain & Modis, Theodore, 2021. "Poorly known aspects of flattening the curve of COVID-19," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Modis, Theodore, 2007. "The normal, the natural, and the harmonic," OSF Preprints 84tgs, Center for Open Science.
    3. Modis, Theodore, 1992. "Chaoslike states can be expected before and after logistic growth," OSF Preprints z6yf7, Center for Open Science.
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