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The Electoral Politics of Immigration and Crime

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  • Alizade, Jeyhun

    (WZB Berlin Social Science Center)

Abstract

Concern that immigration worsens crime problems is prevalent across Western publics. How does it shape electoral politics? Prior research asserted a growing left-right divide in immigration attitudes and voting behavior due to educational realignment. In contrast, I argue that leftist voters are more conservative on immigrant crime than leftist parties, which can drive highly-educated progressives (so-called `cosmopolitans') to right-wing parties. I demonstrate this voter-party mismatch using survey data from 14 Western European countries linked with expert ratings of party positions. A panel survey from Germany further shows that concern about immigrant crime increases vote intention for the center right among voters of the Greens – the party of leftist cosmopolitans. A conjoint experiment among German voters replicates this defection effect and shows that it persists even if the center right stigmatizes immigrants or adopts conservative socio-cultural issue positions. Repercussions of immigration can in fact drive leftist cosmopolitans to the right.

Suggested Citation

  • Alizade, Jeyhun, 2024. "The Electoral Politics of Immigration and Crime," OSF Preprints h967e_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:h967e_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/h967e_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leeper, Thomas J. & Hobolt, Sara B. & Tilley, James, 2020. "Measuring Subgroup Preferences in Conjoint Experiments," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 207-221, April.
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